Amtech Systems Inc (ASYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.95+4.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 44.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASYS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
CEO — Robert C. Daigle: Mr. Robert C. Daigle is retiring as CEO and will continue to serve on the Board as Executive Chairman, while Guy Shechter has been appointed as the new CEO.
Why it matters: If guidance is exceeded, it shows strong demand for AI equipment and growth.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance above $24 million would confirm strong AI demand.
Worry ifIf Q4 revenue guidance is below $22.5 million, it shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: New leaders can change the company's strategy and affect growth. Good changes can boost investor trust.
Watch forThe new CEO announced new plans for the company.
Also watch forThe new leaders did not announce any new plans.
Why it matters: Details about the offering will explain Amtech's growth plans and money situation.
Watch forThe public offering size is over $5 million.
Also watch forThe offering size is below $5 million or it is canceled.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in the TPS segment shows strong demand for AI-related products.
Supportive ifTPS revenue growth above 20% year-over-year would confirm ongoing AI demand.
Worry ifIf TPS revenue growth is under 15% each year, it shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Better profits mean Amtech is keeping costs low and making more money.
Supportive ifOperating margin improves by more than 2% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating margin declines or stays flat in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A gross profit over $9.7 million shows the company is making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit was more than $9.7 million. This shows better profits.
Worry ifGross profit was less than $9.7 million. This shows profit problems.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI revenue shows demand for advanced packaging. It shows Amtech's strong position.
Supportive ifAI revenue grew over 120% compared to last year.
Worry ifAI revenue growth is below 100% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Successful M&A could accelerate growth and expand market reach.
Supportive ifThere is news of a completed acquisition that fits the growth plan.
Worry ifNo M&A announcements or failed attempts to acquire within the next six months.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue target shows Amtech's growth strategy is working well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $22 million. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $20 million. This points to growth challenges.
Why it matters: Successful M&A could speed up growth and improve market position. It shows management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about a completed merger or acquisition. This will use money from the public offering.
Worry ifNo M&A activity announced within six months of the public offering.
Why it matters: An increase in customer orders would signal strong demand for Amtech's products and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifCustomer orders exceed $28.8 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCustomer orders fall below $28.8 million.
Why it matters: Falling SFS revenue may hurt overall profits. Watching this helps us see the company's health.
Worry ifSFS revenue declines year-over-year by more than 10% in Q4.
Less concerning ifSFS revenue stays the same or grows each year.
Why it matters: If margins grow, it shows good cost control and focus on products.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 48% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 47% in Q3.
Why it matters: M&A could accelerate growth and enhance market position. Investors will want to see progress on this front.
Watch forA new acquisition or merger is announced. It fits with the growth strategy.
Also watch forNo updates or progress reported on M&A activity in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Stabilization shows good cost management in a market that is going down.
Supportive ifSFS segment revenue stays stable or drops less than 5% each year.
Worry ifIf SFS revenue declines more than 15% year-over-year, it shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: The completion of the offering will provide funds for growth and M&A. This could enhance the company's market position.
Supportive ifThey announced that the public offering is complete.
Worry ifThe company announced delays or that it did not finish the offering.
Why it matters: If sector growth falls, it may show bigger problems for Amtech.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the current growth phase.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$391 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $831 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,310 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.