Amtech Systems Inc (ASYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.09-10.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
ASYS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
CEO — Robert C. Daigle: Mr. Robert C. Daigle is retiring as CEO and will continue to serve on the Board as Executive Chairman, while Guy Shechter has been appointed as the new CEO.
Why it matters: Guy Shechter became CEO during the Q3 report. The December results can show whether AI demand and planned equipment work keep moving forward.
Watch forThe December results show revenue of at least $22.5 million. They confirm work on next-generation equipment continues.
Also watch forDecember results show revenue below $22.5 million. Or they say work on next-generation equipment stopped or slipped.
Why it matters: Amtech guided to $22.5 million to $24.0 million for Q4. Meeting that range would show AI equipment demand stayed strong.
Supportive ifIn the December 9 results, Q4 revenue is at least $22.5 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is below $22.5 million.
Why it matters: SFS revenue fell 13.3% year over year to $4.6 million in Q3. Another drop would show that weak SiC demand still weighs on this segment.
Worry ifSFS revenue falls below $4.0 million, or declines further year over year.
Less concerning ifSFS revenue reaches at least $4.6 million and its year-over-year decline ends.
Why it matters: Amtech raised $56.5 million after fees and named growth and possible deals as uses. A disclosed deal would show progress on that plan.
Supportive ifAmtech announces a deal and states its price or expected cost savings.
Worry ifBy the next two results, Amtech has announced no deal and has given no update on use of the offering cash.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$297 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $839 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,865 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: TPS orders rose to $28.8 million in Q3, and its book-to-bill ratio was 1.37. Continued orders would back the AI equipment growth story.
Supportive ifTPS orders top $25 million in a reported quarter, and its book-to-bill ratio stays above 1.0.
Worry ifTPS orders fall below $21.1 million, the company-wide Q2 level. Or TPS book-to-bill drops below 1.0.
Why it matters: Gross margin reached 50% in Q3 after rising from 47.7% in Q2. Staying near these levels would show that higher-margin products and cost cuts are helping.
Supportive ifReported gross margin is at least 47% in the next two results.
Worry ifReported gross margin falls below 44.8%, the Q1 level.