Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.45+1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers
ATEC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. On August 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for its period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto a…
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money a company makes. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026 was less than $35 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026 meets or exceeds $35 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $882M target for 2026. A strong Q2 could signal recovery.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $200M, showing growth from Q1's $192.1M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $192.1M. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: Delays in refinancing benefits could harm financial stability. This may slow growth.
Watch forDebt refinancing benefits came sooner than expected. This reduced costs more than planned.
Also watch forDelays in getting debt refinancing benefits may happen. Higher costs could also occur.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is key to achieving the $882 million target for 2026. It shows the company's ongoing demand and market position.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 15% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Updates on adjusted EBITDA will show progress toward the $134M goal for 2026.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA was over $30M in Q2. This shows better performance.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA was below $30M in Q2. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Generating $20M in free cash flow is a key goal. Improvement signals better cash management.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q2 exceeds $5M, indicating progress toward the $20M goal.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q2 remains below $1.29M, showing lack of improvement.
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows the company is stable. This is important for investor trust.
Watch forManagement confirms all prior debts are fully repaid without issues.
Also watch forAny delays or issues in debt repayment are reported.
Why it matters: Lower borrowing costs can boost profits and cash flow. This helps overall financial health.
Watch forInterest expense drops by over $6 million each year as noted.
Also watch forInterest expense does not drop as expected or goes up.
Why it matters: Lower interest expenses help the company make more money. Savings show good financial health.
Supportive ifThe annual interest expense is down by over $6 million as stated.
Worry ifInterest expenses did not drop as expected. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: More savings would make more money and improve the financial position.
Supportive ifAnnual savings from refinancing are more than $6 million.
Worry ifAnnual savings from refinancing are less than $6 million.
Why it matters: Surgical revenue growth is key to meeting the annual revenue target. A drop below 15% could signal issues.
Worry ifSurgical revenue growth for Q3 is less than 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifSurgical revenue growth for Q3 meets or exceeds 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for financial health. Falling below $20 million could indicate cash flow issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $20 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $20 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $523 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,918 loss on $10,000 · 69.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.