Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.80-5.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATEC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. On August 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for its period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto a…
Why it matters: Lower biologics attachment cut Q3 revenue short. A recovery would help turn strong case growth into more revenue.
Supportive ifQ4 results show more biologics attachment than in Q3. Total revenue is at or above the implied Q4 amount needed for the $862 million 2026 outlook.
Worry ifQ4 results show biologics attachment stays below Q3. Or full-year revenue falls below the revised $862 million outlook.
Why it matters: ATEC lowered its EBITDA outlook from $140 million to $137 million. Results will test whether quarterly profit gains offset the cut.
Worry ifReported 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $137 million, and the company keeps its profit growth from the prior year.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 adjusted EBITDA is below $137 million. Or the company cuts its outlook again.
Why it matters: Q3 case volume grew about 20%, and new surgeon users rose 25%. Continued gains would support the procedure-focused plan.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows case volume growth of at least 20% and net new surgeon user growth of at least 25% year over year.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows case volume growth below 10%, or net new surgeon user growth below 10%.
Why it matters: ATEC cut its full-year revenue outlook from $882 million to $862 million. The next results will show whether the lower target is met.
Worry ifReported 2026 total revenue is at least $862 million. This includes about $789 million in surgical revenue and $73 million in EOS revenue.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 total revenue is below $862 million. Or surgical revenue is below the $789 million outlook.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $533 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,918 loss on $10,000 · 69.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ATEC lowered its free cash flow outlook from at least $20 million to about $10 million. The year-end result will test cash generation.
Worry ifReported 2026 free cash flow is at least $10 million, after $6 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 free cash flow is below $10 million, or trailing twelve-month free cash flow turns negative.