ATI Inc. (ATI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$210.65+2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
ATI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 8, 2026, ATI Inc. (the “Company”) completed its offering and sale of $450 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s unsecured 5.875% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The offering and sale of the Notes (the “Offering”) were made pursuant to the Company’s shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Notes were issued pursuant to the Indenture, dated as of September 14, 2021 (the “Indenture”),…
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show problems in operations. This could hurt future growth plans.
Worry ifOperating cash flow in Q2 2026 reported below $245 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow in Q2 2026 reported above $255 million.
Why it matters: Aerospace demand is very important for ATI's growth. Changes can greatly affect revenue and profits.
Watch forAerospace demand shows a year-over-year increase of more than 5%.
Also watch forAerospace demand drops by over 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in this important area may show bigger market problems. It could lower total revenue.
Worry ifAerospace and defense sales grew less than 6% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifAerospace and defense sales grew more than 8% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This offering will change ATI's debt and how it manages its money.
Watch forCompletion of the offering with proceeds used to redeem the 2027 Notes.
Also watch forThe offering fails to complete or proceeds are not used for the intended redemption.
Why it matters: This measure shows profit and earnings growth. It is key for investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted earnings per share reported below $1.31.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 adjusted earnings per share exceeds $1.37.
Why it matters: Aerospace & defense sales are a key driver of ATI's revenue growth.
Watch forAerospace & defense sales increase by more than 6% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forAerospace & defense sales decrease or remain flat in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If margins stop growing, it may mean rising costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin grew less than 310 basis points compared to last year.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin grew more than 310 basis points compared to last year.
Why it matters: More capital spending may lead to more growth and larger capacity.
Supportive ifCapital spending was over $68 million for Q3.
Worry ifCapital spending was below $68 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings below guidance may show problems with profit margins.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share were below $1.31.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per share were above $1.37.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management expects to keep making money and growing.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share reported within the range of $1.31 to $1.37.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share falls below $1.31.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and pricing power. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improving beyond 72% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifMargins are falling or below 72%. This shows there are cost pressures.
Why it matters: A slowdown in share buybacks may change how the company uses its money.
Worry ifShare repurchases were below $50 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases were above $75 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future sales and demand in aerospace and defense.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported at more than 18% year-over-year.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 18% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that management believes demand will stay strong and margins will improve.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $305M to $315M.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $305M.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps ATI invest in growth and return money to shareholders. It shows operational efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is above $550 million for 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is below $550 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand. This is important for revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog growth is over 18% year-over-year, reaching more than $4.4 billion.
Worry ifBacklog growth falls below 18% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,858 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.