ATI Inc. (ATI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$179.09-0.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 8, 2026, ATI Inc. (the “Company”) completed its offering and sale of $450 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s unsecured 5.875% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The offering and sale of the Notes (the “Offering”) were made pursuant to the Company’s shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Notes were issued pursuant to the Indenture, dated as of September 14, 2021 (the “Indenture”),…
Why it matters: ATI set a 2026 free cash flow guide of $550 million to $600 million. Cash flow below that range would weaken the evidence of operating progress.
Watch forATI reports 2026 adjusted free cash flow of at least $550 million.
Also watch forATI reports 2026 adjusted free cash flow below $550 million.
Why it matters: HPMC sales grew, but its margin fell as ATI ramped a new nickel alloy. Better margins would show that higher output is covering those costs.
Watch forHPMC EBITDA margin rises above 23.2%, its Q3 2026 level, as commercial output grows.
Also watch forHPMC EBITDA margin stays at or below 23.2%, or falls, while ramp costs remain high.
Why it matters: AA&S sales rose 34% year over year, with aerospace and defense among the key drivers. Slower growth would test the demand story.
Watch forAA&S aerospace and defense sales grow year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forAA&S aerospace and defense sales fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $380 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,232 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.