Ames National Corp. (ATLO)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.04-2.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATLO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-16
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 16, 2026, Ames National Corporation issued a News Release announcing financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Substandard loans rose to $52.0 million from $29.7 million a year ago. Some multifamily loans have lower occupancy.
Worry ifThe next report shows substandard loans above $52.0 million. Or, it says more multifamily loans were downgraded.
Less concerning ifSubstandard loans drop below $52.0 million. The report notes no new downgrades in multifamily loans.
Why it matters: ATLO declared a $0.24 quarterly dividend in Q3. The next declaration will show whether the payout stays level.
Watch forThe next dividend notice declares at least $0.24 per share.
Also watch forThe next dividend notice declares less than $0.24 per share or skips a payment.
Why it matters: The margin reached 3.38% in Q3, lifting net interest income. A drop below 3.18% would reverse the latest quarter's gain.
Watch forQ4 net interest margin is above 3.38%, extending the rise from 3.18% in Q2.
Also watch forQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.18%, the Q2 level.
Why it matters: Q3 had $745,000 in net loan charge-offs, after net recoveries a year earlier. More losses could point to wider loan trouble.
Worry ifQ4 net loan charge-offs exceed $745,000. Or, new charge-offs arise in commercial real estate or operating loans.
Less concerning ifQ4 reports net recoveries or charge-offs below $745,000, with no new loan groups named for losses.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $709 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.