Ames National Corp. (ATLO)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.44+1.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ATLO — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events On August 12, 2026, the Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend. A copy of the press release dated August 13, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial stability. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe dividend is $0.24 per share. This is the same as in previous quarters.
Worry ifThe dividend is now below $0.24 per share. This may show financial trouble.
Why it matters: More charge-offs might mean worse credit quality. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs reported below $255,000.
Less concerning ifNet loan charge-offs reported above $255,000.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS shows the company is on track for its 2026 forecast.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at $0.67 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $0.67.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends impact the overall health of the financial sector. It signals potential slowdowns.
Worry ifAmes National's revenue growth is below its usual level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above the usual level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $709 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at $0.24 per share shows a commitment to shareholders. It also shows financial stability.
Watch forDividend declared remains at $0.24 per share.
Also watch forDividend declared is reduced from $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact ATLO's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin helps net interest income grow.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported at 3.10% or higher for Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 3.10% for Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend payout show shifts in how money is used and health.
Watch forThe company announced a higher quarterly dividend. It is now above $0.24 per share.
Also watch forThe company announced a lower quarterly dividend. It is now below $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: Low charge-offs show good credit quality. This means effective risk management.
Supportive ifNet loan charge-offs reported below $300,000 for Q3.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs reported above $300,000 for Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its EPS forecast of $2.70 to $2.80.
Watch forEarnings per share reported above $2.80 would support strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share reported below $2.70 would raise concerns about growth.