Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU)
NYSEIndustrialsAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.16-3.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.28 → 3.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATMU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share grows to $0.06 | The company raised dividends to $0.055 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share fails to increase above $0.055 in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.06 dividend per share in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.055 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial business with execution and sector-cycle risks, rather than a proven, steady compounder. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The evidence describes ATMU as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment calls current expectations justified rather than excessively fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a large cushion against execution setbacks.
Near term, revenue and operating income have improved, margins have edged up, and management has raised 2026 revenue guidance while maintaining its margin range. Earnings quality remains fragile, and the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses, although the current miss-risk assessment is low.
The multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth, successful acquisition integration, and sustained margin progress. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers such as BA, CAT, and UNP could signal whether sector conditions are helping or weakening.
ATMU’s operating progress supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk make delivery and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “– Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (Atmus; NYSE: ATMU), a global leader in the filtration industry, announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.06 per common share, an increase from the prior quarterly dividend of $0.055 per common share.” “Additionally, Atmus paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.055 per share of common stock.”
Operating income improves to at least $76M | Cost control improved operating income from $64.9M to $76.3M in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $65M next 4 quarters | Operating income: $97.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $76M operating income in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202697,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.8% compared to 19.6% in the same period last year.” “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.0% compared to 19.7% in the same period last year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross margin near 20% | Profit margins stay near 20%. | Under Pressure | Gross margin falls below 19.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 29.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~20% gross margin in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202629.153249 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.8% compared to 19.6% in the same period last year.” “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.0% compared to 19.7% in the same period last year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows about 9.5% annually to ~$1.97B | Atmus grows revenue about 9.5% a year, helped by acquisitions. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $1.72B in FY26 | Revenue: $527.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.97B revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026527,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “First Quarter Results For the first quarter of 2026, Atmus posted net sales of $478 million, compared to $417 million in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 14.6%.” “Full Year 2025 Results For the full year 2025 , Atmus posted sales of $1,764 million , up $95 million , or 5.7% from the prior year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.24 → $3.28 · observed estimates
$2.10B → $2.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.24 | $2,101,297,078 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.24 | $2,101,332,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,180 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.26 | $2,108,438,160 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.28 | $2,110,641,080 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.28 | $2,110,641,080 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.25 | $2,102,132,177 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.28 | $2,113,421,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.28 | $2,114,134,877 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.