Atomera, Inc. (ATOM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.04+2.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 574.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 474.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
ATOM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Atomera Incorporated issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The Company also intends to conduct an earnings call over which it will distribute an investor presentation. The text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the investor presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2, both are incorporated by reference herein. The information in th…
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA loss is more than -$4 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains worse than -$4 million.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal ongoing revenue challenges and lack of growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $10,000.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $10,000.
Why it matters: Management's guidance will show if they believe they can improve financial results. This can impact stock sentiment.
Watch forManagement gives guidance showing a way to make more money.
Also watch forManagement gives guidance that points to more losses or bad results.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows that more people are using MST technology. A strong rise can help investors feel better.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $158K, showing strong demand for MST technology.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $158K. This shows weak customer interest.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$376 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $960 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,746 loss on $10,000 · 67.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If Atomera's technology works well, it can help the company grow.
Supportive ifA new contract or partnership with a GAA manufacturer would be a good sign.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or contracts means adoption may be stuck.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses can show poor cost control. This may worry investors about the future.
Worry ifOperating expenses stay below $6.9 million. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses go over $6.9 million. This suggests worse financial health.
Why it matters: A drop in cash reserves raises worries about financial health and funding.
Worry ifIf cash reserves are below $30 million, it shows financial pressure.
Less concerning ifIf cash reserves are above $30 million, it shows financial health.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may impact Atomera's performance. This could signal broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is crucial to manage losses. A decline would show effective cost management.
Supportive ifOperating costs were below $6.9 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating costs were above $6.9 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A change in risk assessment could indicate a shift in Atomera's strategy or outlook. This could impact investor sentiment.
Watch forManagement updates risk status to 'neutral' or 'strong'.
Also watch forManagement keeps or makes the current 'cautious' risk status worse.
Why it matters: If GAA manufacturers use this technology, it will show Atomera's tech works. This can help Atomera grow.
Supportive ifA press release about a deal with a GAA manufacturer.
Worry ifNo new deals or partnerships with GAA manufacturers.
Why it matters: More cash reserves will help Atomera pay for operations and grow.
Supportive ifCash reserves increase to over $50 million.
Worry ifCash reserves decrease or stay below $41 million.
Why it matters: Better financial performance is very important. Progress could help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income improves from -$6.07M in Q1 to less than -$5M in Q2.
Worry ifNet income worsens, falling below -$6.07M in Q2.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Atomera can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows more revenue or fewer losses than last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses or no revenue growth.
Why it matters: More licensing revenue shows MST technology is being used well. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifLicensing revenue was over $158K in Q3 2026. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifLicensing revenue was below $158K in Q3 2026. This shows growth has stopped.
Why it matters: A strong cash position is key for operations and tech growth. Changes can affect future growth.
Watch forCash position rises above $38.4 million. This shows strong liquidity.
Also watch forCash position falls below $38.4 million. This raises worries about financial health.