Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AtriCure, Inc. (ATRC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$61.28-6.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.42 → 0.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $80M-$82M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | The company targets positive net income and $80M-$82M adjusted EBITDA this year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Full year 2026 revenue is now projected to be approximately $606 million to $610 million, and management also projects full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $91 million to $94 million.” “Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter 2026 was $26.8 million, an increase of $9.0 million or 51% from the third quarter 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented medical technology business with recent strong financial performance, but it is still loss-making overall. The multi-year view is intact, with management on track against its 2026 goals and risk remaining elevated.
ATRC is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The valuation model has low confidence, but its small positive expectations gap suggests some room between current expectations and the model’s view.
Near term, recent results and management’s revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and net income goals point to continued improvement; revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance have also increased. A guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, while weakening employment data could weigh on cyclical healthcare businesses.
The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to deliver its 2026 goals and on recent financial strength persisting. Sector momentum could help if bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while weaker jobs data or a guidance cut would challenge the setup.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ATRC’s thesis rests on execution and improving results, balanced against elevated risk and a stretched valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve positive net income in 2026 | The company targets positive net income and $80M-$82M adjusted EBITDA this year. | Intact | net income remains negative for full year 2026 | Net income: $4.064M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income > 0. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264,064,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full year 2026 net income per share is expected to be in the range of $0.21 to $0.27 and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $0.40 to $0.46.” “Basic and diluted net income per share was $0.08 for the third quarter 2026, compared to basic and diluted net loss per share of $0.01 for the third quarter 2025.” Diluted EPS was $0.08 in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve $600M-$610M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in AtriCure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $600M revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $600M in FY26 | Revenue: $154.45M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $600M revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026154,450,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Full year 2026 revenue is now projected to be approximately $606 million to $610 million, and management also projects full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $91 million to $94 million.” “Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Worldwide revenue for the third quarter 2026 was $154.5 million, an increase of 15.0% over third quarter 2025 revenue (15.1% on a constant currency basis).” Revenue was $154.450 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.35 → $0.40 · observed estimates
$0.68B → $0.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.35 | $678,340,260 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.45 | $679,270,990 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.45 | $679,270,990 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.43 | $679,237,660 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.43 | $679,237,660 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.43 | $679,237,660 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.43 | $679,629,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.42 | $679,704,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.42 | $679,744,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.42 | $679,744,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.42 | $679,744,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.42 | $679,744,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.42 | $679,744,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.42 | $679,743,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.42 | $679,823,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.42 | $679,803,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.42 | $679,803,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.42 | $679,803,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.42 | $679,803,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.42 | $679,803,471 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.42 | $679,804,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.42 | $679,804,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.42 | $679,804,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.42 | $679,804,671 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.42 | $679,432,444 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.42 | $679,432,444 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.42 | $679,432,444 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.42 | $679,988,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.41 | $679,736,500 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.40 | $680,019,925 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.