aTyr Pharma, Inc. (ATYR)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04

$6.18-6.79%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge aTyr Pharma, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATYR yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance efzofitimod development in pulmonary sarcoidosis	A primary condition in aTyr Pharma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive regulatory and clinical updates by end 2026.	Improving	lack of positive regulatory or clinical progress through 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second Quarter 2026 and Subsequent Period Highlights • Protocol submitted to FDA in June 2026 for planned Phase 3 study in patients with chronic, symptomatic pulmonary sarcoidosis with restrictive lung disease.” “The Company is expecting feedback from the FDA by the end of August 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026
Address Nasdaq listing compliance issues	A supporting condition in aTyr Pharma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is maintain bid price above $1.00 and satisfy Nasdaq requirements through 2026.	Under Pressure	failure to regain Nasdaq compliance or delisting occurs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating losses and cash burn	The company manages cash burn while pursuing regulatory progress.	Intact	operating loss worsens beyond -$11.4M per quarter	Operating income: $-10.881M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves to better than -$11.4M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-10,881,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-14.97

$-0.61 → $-14.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.00B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-11	$-0.61	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.51	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.51	$0	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.64	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.44	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-25	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-26	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-27	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-28	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-29	$-0.37	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-30	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-10-31	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-11-01	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-11-02	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-11-03	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6
2026-11-04	$-14.97	$8,787,375	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	5
2026-08-01	4	5
2026-09-01	4	5
2026-10-01	4	5
2026-11-01	4	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Advance efzofitimod development in pulmonary sarcoidosisDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Address Nasdaq listing compliance issuesPublished status: Under Pressure
Manage operating losses and cash burnOperating income: $-10.881M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-88.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

aTyr Pharma, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ATYR is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, not an established earnings compounder. Its thesis is intact, while confidence is medium and risk is high; recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry.

What's priced into aTyr Pharma, Inc.

The valuation model shows a premium versus peers, driven by optionality, or the chance that future development creates value, but confidence in that estimate is low. The evidence does not specify exactly what clinical success or commercial outlook the market assumes, and no valuation fragility signals are flagged.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reduced operating expenses and net losses, and expects further annualized expense savings starting in Q4 2026. Cash and investments declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026 as the company continued developing efzofitimod; enrollment in the Phase 2 EFZO-CONNECT study is complete, with topline results expected in Q1 2027. The next results and cash use remain important risks, and the evidence flags elevated risk of a near-term miss.

What aTyr Pharma, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether efzofitimod development, including the planned Phase 3 study in pulmonary sarcoidosis, advances while cash use remains controlled. Phase 2 results expected in Q1 2027 are a major upcoming evidence point. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while favorable Healthcare-sector momentum could help the backdrop but would not establish progress in ATYR’s own program.