Reading AVAV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVAV free→Reading AVAV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVAV free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AVAV trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $170.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $171 the market pays 57× p/e — above the 38× p/e peer median but in line with its own 67× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $119 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $236–$330. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.73 (+2.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$304.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$664.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,145.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if AeroVironment's revenue and losses are improving. Investors will focus on the numbers.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% and a reduction in losses.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or losses worsen.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVAV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$236.00 – $330.00 (median $259.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-03-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVAV AeroVironment | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Strengthen manufacturing capabilities in electric and unmanned aviation through the acquisition of ESAero.
Focus on scaling manufacturing and strengthening supply chain capabilities to meet rising demand.
Expect revenue of between $1.85 billion and $1.95 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, AeroVironment may gain. This could make investors happier.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rebounds above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.