Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.08-9.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.51 → 4.45 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVAV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Scale manufacturing and supply chain to meet demand | A supporting condition in AeroVironment's published investment case. The stated target is Improved manufacturing scale and supply chain execution. | Improving | Manufacturing and supply chain issues persist or worsen over next year | Qualitative: $1.5B backlog, LOCUST scale-up confirmed News confirms $1.5B backlog and LOCUST manufacturing scale-up; no supply chain issues reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not a steady, profitable compounder today. The long-term thesis is on watch: capacity expansion, the ESAero integration, and current guidance show progress, while recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
AVAV trades at a 1.25 premium to peers, and the valuation label is justified, with an expectations gap near neutral. The valuation measure has fallen by 10.3 points recently, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited.
Near term, management is maintaining fiscal 2027 revenue and net income guidance, while first-quarter revenue and funded backlog rose from the prior-year-quarter and prior-quarter figures, respectively. Capacity and supply-chain work and the ESAero integration are marked on track, but profitability remains thin and recent performance weak; erratic, declining earnings surprises add risk despite a low stated miss probability.
The multi-year view depends on whether capacity expansion, supply-chain improvements, and ESAero integration sustain revenue and backlog growth while management delivers on guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could support or weaken the sector backdrop.
AVAV has operational progress and a growing backlog, but weak financial performance, elevated risk, and a peer valuation premium leave the 1-to-3-year thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Adjusted EBITDA accretive from Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisition |
| The acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace should add profit in the first year. |
| Under Pressure |
| Acquisition is not accretive to adjusted EBITDA within 12 months |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The acquisition will further solidify AV’s position as a global defense technology leader spanning air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains and enhance the Company’s ability to seamlessly transition from innovative design to advanced manufacturing, a capability critical to addressing the urgent demands of an evolving defense tech market.” “ESAero will operate as a subsidiary of AV, reporting into AV’s Precision Strike and Defense Systems group, under the Loitering Munition Systems business unit, furthering production capability in AV’s existing line of loitering munitions, missiles, drones and existing adjacent domains.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027 | Revenue should reach about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.0 billion in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $480.49M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.17B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 2026480,490,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.53 → $4.45 · observed estimates
$2.53B → $2.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.53 | $2,529,878,020 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.42 | $2,526,711,770 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.40 | $2,527,236,770 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.46 | $2,519,994,723 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.46 | $2,519,330,393 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.43 | $2,519,328,243 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.42 | $2,519,330,268 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.44 | $2,526,878,589 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.52 | $2,535,501,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.52 | $2,535,501,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.52 | $2,535,501,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.52 | $2,535,501,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.52 | $2,535,501,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.54 | $2,538,001,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.54 | $2,538,001,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.54 | $2,538,001,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.54 | $2,538,001,714 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.53 | $2,538,017,999 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.53 | $2,538,017,999 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.51 | $2,538,485,164 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.51 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.51 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.51 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.51 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.50 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.50 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.49 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.49 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.49 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.49 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.49 | $2,538,045,367 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.46 | $2,538,009,749 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.46 | $2,538,009,749 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.46 | $2,538,009,149 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.46 | $2,538,010,354 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.46 | $2,538,010,354 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.45 | $2,539,771,766 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.45 | $2,539,762,242 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.45 | $2,539,762,242 | 14 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.