AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$144.65-1.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVAV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers
AVAV — director transition
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Charles Thomas Burbage: Mr. Burbage is retiring from the Board and not standing for re-election, with a new director appointed.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal trouble in meeting fiscal year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $408 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue exceeds $408 million.
Why it matters: An increase shows better profits and smoother operations.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 32%.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 32%.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would support AeroVironment's raised guidance and show demand strength.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $408M. This shows strong demand and good execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $408M. This suggests weaker demand or problems with execution.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for products.
Supportive ifFunded backlog increases beyond $1.2 billion in the next reporting period.
Worry ifFunded backlog drops or stays the same below $1.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$297 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $781 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,665 loss on $10,000 · 66.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management expects revenue between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion. Meeting this range shows strong growth.
Supportive ifFiscal year 2027 revenue reported within the range of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion.
Worry ifFiscal year 2027 revenue is below $2.125 billion.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows the company can sustain growth after a strong fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue to less than $2.125 billion.