AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$102.08-9.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVAV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers
AVAV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 30, 2026, AeroVironment, Inc. (the “ Company ”), as borrower, and certain subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors thereto (the “ Guarantors ”), Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the “ Administrative Agent ”), lender, letter of credit issuer, swingline lender, and each other lender from time to time party thereto, including JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., U.S. Bank National Association, Citizens Bank, N.A., Citibank, N.A., Royal…
Why it matters: Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion. A weak Q2 could make that range harder to reach.
Worry ifAt the December 8 results, fiscal Q2 revenue is below $531 million, one quarter of the low end of annual guidance.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q2 revenue is at least $531 million, and management keeps its annual revenue range.
Why it matters: The full-year adjusted EBITDA range is $305 million to $325 million. A low Q2 result would add pressure to that range.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $76 million in the December 8 results. That is one quarter of the low end of annual guidance.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is at least $76 million, and management keeps its annual range.
Why it matters: Funded backlog rose to $1.5 billion from $1.2 billion in the prior quarter. A sharp fall could point to fewer funded orders.
Worry ifThe December 8 results show funded backlog below $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifFunded backlog stays at or above $1.5 billion in the December 8 results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$261 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $795 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,402 loss on $10,000 · 74.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.