Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AVIR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.22-5.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -88.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AVIR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Why it matters: A filing would move the HCV treatment toward a possible U.S. approval. It depends on the C-FORWARD results.
Supportive ifAtea submits its NDA to the FDA in Q2 2027, as planned after C-FORWARD results.
Worry ifAtea delays the filing beyond Q2 2027 or says the C-FORWARD data do not support filing.
Why it matters: Cash fell to $219.5 million by June 30, 2026. A further drop may put pressure on the stated runway through 2027.
Worry ifAtea reports less than $200 million in cash and investments at a later quarter-end.
Less concerning ifCash and investments stay at or above $200 million. Management still says funds will last through 2027.
Why it matters: The trial tests BEM/RZR in patients outside North America. Results add data across more HCV types.
Watch forTopline results arrive in early Q1 2027 and show the trial met its primary endpoint.
Also watch forThe trial misses its primary endpoint, or results slip past early Q1 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,431 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.