Avanos Medical, Inc. (AVNS)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.99+0.04%
Close 2026-07-24 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVNS — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant The information set forth in the Introductor…
Dated 2026-07-30
Changes in Control of Registrant The information set forth in the Introductory Note and in Items 2.01, 2.03, and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Q1 operating income fell from a year ago, despite higher sales. A recovery would show that growth is reaching the bottom line.
Supportive ifQuarterly operating income tops $10.3 million. That was the Q1 2025 level.
Worry ifQuarterly operating income stays at or below $8.9 million. That was the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Cash from operations and free cash flow both turned negative in Q1. A return to positive cash flow would reverse that trend.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash from operations is above $0 and free cash flow is also above $0.
Worry ifQuarterly cash from operations remains negative, or free cash flow stays below $0.
Why it matters: The deal sets a cash payment of $25 per share. A delay or failed closing would put that outcome in doubt.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. Or Avanos reports that a closing condition is still unmet after July 27, 2026.
Less concerning ifAvanos files a notice confirming the deal closed. Stockholders received $25 per share.
Why it matters: This segment drove most of Q1 sales growth. A sharp slowdown would weaken the clearest growth signal.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, Specialty Nutrition Systems sales growth falls below 10% year over year. Q1 growth was 22.7%.
Less concerning ifThe segment posts sales growth of 20% or more year over year again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$16 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,559 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.