Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$170.54-3.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AWI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Sect…
Why it matters: Higher freight and raw material costs already offset part of the sales benefit. A wider cost gap could pressure margins.
Worry ifIn a later quarter, higher manufacturing costs outweigh the margin gains from higher AUV and sales volume. Segment margins fall year over year.
Less concerning ifHigher AUV and sales volume offset higher manufacturing costs by as much or more. Segment margins stay flat or rise from a year earlier.
Why it matters: Year-to-date operating cash flow fell 10%, in part due to cash timing and higher tax payments. Full-year results test the cash outlook.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted free cash flow is below $380 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted free cash flow reaches at least $380 million, within the $380 million to $390 million guidance range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,531 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.