Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$173.33+1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
AWI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Sect…
Why it matters: Better margins show the company is running well and managing costs. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income margin rises to over 29% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 28% in Q3.
Why it matters: More buybacks show that management is confident in cash flow and wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q2 exceed $60 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q2 are less than $60 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment is key for overall revenue and profitability. It shows if management's growth strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 Architectural Specialties net sales grew over 10% from last year.
Worry ifQ3 Architectural Specialties net sales grew less than 5% from last year.
Why it matters: Steady sales growth is important for keeping investor trust. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifConsolidated net sales grow year over year by more than 9%.
Worry ifConsolidated net sales grow year over year by less than 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $271 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,538 loss on $10,000 · 25.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth is important to meet the full-year EPS guidance of $8.15 to $8.45.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of demand strength in the market. A drop below this level may signal weakening sales momentum.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net sales growth less than 9% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 net sales growth meets or exceeds 11%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better management of working capital. This helps with future investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: An improvement shows that management is confident. They are running the business well and managing costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 32% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 32% in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA shows the company can make cash and control expenses well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases show that management believes in the company's value. It also shows they want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company buys back over $100 million in shares during Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also promises to return cash to shareholders.
Watch forDividend payout remains at $0.339 per share in Q2.
Also watch forDividend payout is reduced in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show financial health and care for shareholders. Changes can affect investor trust.
Watch forThe company maintains or increases the dividend payout in Q2.
Also watch forThe company cuts the dividend payout in Q2.