American Water Works (AWK)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$140.70-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AWK — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-06
Other Events. Filing of Rate Request with the Missouri Public Service Commission (the “MoPSC”) by Missouri-American Water Company (“Missouri American Water”) On July 1, 2026 , Missouri American Water, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. (the “Company”), announced that it filed with the MoPSC a request for new water and wastewater rates. The request seeks annualized incremental revenue of approximately $179 million, excluding infrastructure surcharges of approximate…
Why it matters: Affirming guidance shows they are confident in growth and stability.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 EPS guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Adjusting rates can help make more money and support growth. It shows the company can cover costs and invest in infrastructure.
Supportive ifRate adjustments are approved. This leads to more money each year.
Worry ifRate adjustments are denied or cut back a lot.
Why it matters: Regulatory approvals are key to completing the merger. This will enhance growth and market presence.
Supportive ifMore states approve the merger. This shows progress toward completion.
Worry ifDelays or rejections in merger approvals can show problems.
Why it matters: The outcome will affect revenue and operations in Missouri. This is a key market for American Water.
Worry ifThe Missouri Public Service Commission approves the rate request. This is for $179 million in annual revenue.
Less concerning ifThe commission denies the rate request. It may set lower revenue adjustments than requested.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,563 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher revenue requests show good plans. This helps future growth.
Supportive ifTotal annual revenue requests will be over $518 million in 2026.
Worry ifAnnual revenue requests drop below $346 million.
Why it matters: Successful rate changes are key for revenue growth and getting back costs.
Supportive ifTotal revenue requests rise from $346 million to $518 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue requests fall or stay the same.
Why it matters: Updates on capital investments will show progress. This is toward the $3.7 billion plan.
Watch forThey announce capital investments over $2 billion by Q3 2026.
Also watch forCapital investments do not reach $2 billion by Q3 2026. This may show operational issues.
Why it matters: This decision will affect revenue growth. It is important for financial performance.
Supportive ifThe Pennsylvania rate case decision approves new rates. This will raise annual revenue by over $100 million.
Worry ifThe decision denies the rate increase. It may lead to lower revenue adjustments.
Why it matters: Carrying out the capital plan is key. It is important for infrastructure and growth.
Supportive ifThe company says capital investments are on track. They aim to meet or exceed $3.7 billion.
Worry ifCapital investments are far below the planned $3.7 billion.
Why it matters: The outcome will impact revenue growth. It will show how well regulatory strategies work.
Worry ifMissouri American Water got a good decision. It allows revenue to increase by over $179 million.
Less concerning ifThe Missouri rate request is denied. It may also lead to lower revenue increases.