American Water Works (AWK)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
$149.63+2.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AWK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 , shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Management set a new 2027 range, about 8% growth at its midpoint. Results will test that target.
Watch forAWK reports 2027 adjusted EPS of at least $6.53.
Also watch forAWK reports 2027 adjusted EPS below $6.53 or cuts its range.
Why it matters: AWK narrowed its 2026 range to the top half. The final result tests that raised view.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS lands at or above $6.07.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS falls below $6.07 or management cuts the range.
Why it matters: Management targets a close by the end of Q1 2027. State approvals and settlements mark progress toward that date.
Watch forThe merger closes by March 31, 2027, after required approvals.
Also watch forThe closing moves past March 31, 2027, or a key regulator rejects the merger.
Why it matters: New rates help AWK recover money spent on its water systems. The current request totals $360 million in yearly revenue.
Watch forRate orders approve new revenue in the five pending cases. This moves the $360 million request closer to recovery.
Also watch forRegulators reject or sharply cut major parts of the pending rate requests.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,329 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.