American Water Works (AWK)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-07-08
$131.85-2.20%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $131.85. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $135 AWK trades at 2.4× p/b, in line with its 2.3× p/b peer median — but our blended $119 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $124–$150. Note: our $119 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($124–$150). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $145 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $137.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $63.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $84.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $147.24 | 24.3 | 6.07 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$124.00 – $150.00 (median $137.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $130.35 |
| 2.3 |
| 56.60 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $137.53 | 24.3 | 5.67 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $80.83 | 3.0 | 26.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $193.13 | 34.1 | 5.67 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $61.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $136.26 | 24.0 | 5.67 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $135.91 | 24.3 | 5.60 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $197.71 | 24.3 | 8.15 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $150.70 | 2.3 | 65.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $240.63 | 24.3 | 9.92 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $166.00 | 2.3 | 72.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |