AWK
American Water WorksNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AWK has a composite score of 1.3 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 65.6, with strengths in quality (56.5) and valuation (60.9), while momentum is notably weak at -46.1. The current analysis is provisional, influenced by factors such as macroeconomic conditions and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.63 → $1.58 (-2.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
17 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Affirm 2026 EPS guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
2/18: “The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12, compared to adjusted EPS in 2025 of $5.64. The trajectory is delivering on the stated guidance.
- 2.Seek rate adjustmentsregulatorywatchprovisional
10/29: “The company has general rate cases in progress in seven jurisdictions.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has general rate cases in progress in seven jurisdictions, reflecting a total annualized revenue request of approximately $573 million. This recurring focus shows limited substantive delivery so far.
- 3.Announce acquisitioncapital allocationwatchprovisional
7/30: “Agreement to purchase Nexus Water Group systems in eight states.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company announced the acquisition of Nexus Water Group systems in eight states, adding approximately 87,000 customer connections. This recurring focus shows limited substantive delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.02 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 62/100, drawdown 69/100, beta 2/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Affirm 2026 EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12, compared to adjusted EPS in 2025 of $5.64. The trajectory is delivering on the stated guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company affirms its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Initiating 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Initiating 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.”
- #2
Seek rate adjustments
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04The company is actively seeking rate adjustments to increase revenue.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has general rate cases in progress in seven jurisdictions, reflecting a total annualized revenue request of approximately $573 million. This recurring focus shows limited substantive delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The company has general rate cases in progress in seven jurisdictions.”Press releaseSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company has general rate cases in progress in seven jurisdictions.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“The company has general rate cases in progress in four jurisdictions.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“The company has general rate cases in progress in three jurisdictions.”
- #3
Announce acquisition
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04The company announced the acquisition of Nexus Water Group systems.
Behind →WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company announced the acquisition of Nexus Water Group systems in eight states, adding approximately 87,000 customer connections. This recurring focus shows limited substantive delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Agreement to purchase Nexus Water Group systems in eight states.”Press releaseSource dated 2025-07-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Agreement to purchase Nexus Water Group systems in eight states.”
- 2025-Q1Press release
“Announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.8275 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AWK American Water Works | +1.3 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 , shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 30, 2026, American Water Capital Corp. (“AWCC”), a wholly owned finance subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. (“American Water”), agreed to sell $700 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.200% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”) pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated March 30, 2026, by and among AWCC and American Water, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, PNC Capital Markets LLC, RBC Capital Markets, LLC and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as represe…
capital allocationneutralscore 22 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 , shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 7.01
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 , shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements included…
mna activitypositivescore 7 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Filing of Rate Request with the Illinois Commerce Commission (the “ICC”) by Illinois-American Water Company (“Illinois American Water”) On January 27, 2026, Illinois American Water, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. ( the “Company”), announced that it filed a request with the ICC to adjust its water and wastewater rates. The filing seeks a two-step rate increase in aggregate annualized incremental revenue, based on a proposed return on equity of 10.…
legal regulatorynegativescore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.