AVALON HOLDINGS CORP (AWX)
AMEXIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.61+0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AWX — credit agreement
Dated 2025-09-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On September 24, 2025 Avalon Holdings Corporation and certain wholly-owned subsidiaries entered into a Change in Terms Agreement with Wesbanco Bank, Inc. (formerly known as Premier Bank) (the “Lender”) which amended its existing Business Loan and Promissory Note Agreements (collectively the “Line of Credit Agreement”) dated September 23, 2024. The Change in Terms Agreement extends the maturity date of the Line of Credit Agreement from July 31, 2026 t…
Why it matters: Employment data can impact the economy. It also affects how well industries perform.
Watch forUnemployment rate falls below 4.5%.
Also watch forUnemployment rate goes above 5.0%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 7% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in personal income can show how much people spend. This affects industries.
Watch forPersonal income growth is reported above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forPersonal income growth is reported below 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show a weak economy. This can affect Avalon Holdings' outlook.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims go over 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims stay under 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $909 loss on $10,000 · 9.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger market for Avalon Holdings. This would help support its valuation.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 5%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 4%.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects industrial demand. A strong reading could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifGDP growth is reported above 2% in the second estimate.
Worry ifGDP growth is reported below 1% in the second estimate.
Why it matters: A shift from headwind to tailwind could improve Avalon’s growth outlook.
Supportive ifSector regime status changes from headwind to neutral or tailwind.
Worry ifSector regime status remains a headwind or worsens.
Why it matters: This index affects inflation and can impact costs for Avalon Holdings. Changes could influence pricing strategies.
Watch forPPI shows a month-over-month increase above 0.5%.
Also watch forPPI shows a month-over-month decrease below -0.5%.
Why it matters: CPI affects consumer spending and can impact Avalon Holdings' revenue. Higher inflation could hurt margins.
Watch forCPI increases month-over-month by more than 0.4%.
Also watch forCPI decreases month-over-month by more than -0.4%.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decisions on interest rates can affect borrowing costs for Avalon Holdings. This impacts growth plans.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.