AVALON HOLDINGS CORP (AWX)
AMEXIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.51-4.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
AWX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On July 28, 2026 Avalon Holdings Corporation and certain wholly-owned subsidiaries entered into a Change in Terms Agreement with Wesbanco Bank, Inc. (formerly known as Premier Bank) (the “Lender”) which amended its existing Business Loan and Promissory Note Agreements (collectively the “Line of Credit Agreement”) dated September 24, 2025. The Change in Terms Agreement extends the maturity date of the Line of Credit Agreement from July 31, 2027 to Jul…
Why it matters: Revenue rose to $20.9M in 2026-Q2 from $16.1M in 2025-Q1. A further rise would show that growth is continuing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $20.9M, the 2026-Q2 level.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $20.9M or lower.
Why it matters: The sector is mature and growth has slowed. A return toward past growth highs would ease this sector headwind for AWX.
Supportive ifXLI sector data shows revenue growth rising back toward its past highs from near 4%.
Worry ifXLI revenue growth stays near 4% or falls further.
Why it matters: The latest reported quarter had $0.9M in net income, but the quality signal still says loss-making. The next report can show if profits continue.
Watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows net income above $0.
Also watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows a net loss below $0.
Why it matters: The line's maturity moved from July 2027 to July 2029. New borrowing or a breach would show whether credit terms remain stable.
Worry ifA filing reports a missed payment, covenant breach, or default under the credit line.
Less concerning ifThe next filing reports no breach or default, and no new credit terms change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $264 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating income rose to $1.36M in 2026-Q2. A drop would weaken evidence that profit is improving.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is below $1.36M, the 2026-Q2 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income is at least $1.36M.