AxoGen, Inc. (AXGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.75-5.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 33.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXGN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-28
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of such section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into future filings by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or under the Exchange Act, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such in…
Why it matters: Gross margin fell to 72.7% in Q2, then rose to 74.8% in Q3. The full-year result tests the stated floor.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 gross margin is below 73%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 gross margin is at least 73%.
Why it matters: Axogen has pledged positive free cash flow for 2026. The year-end result will test that goal after the BioCircuit purchase.
Supportive ifAxogen reports positive free cash flow for full-year 2026.
Worry ifAxogen reports zero or negative free cash flow for full-year 2026.
Why it matters: Axogen plans to start prostate market development in 2027 after positive study results. The call may set clear steps and timing.
Watch forOn the November 9 call, Axogen names a 2027 launch plan, key steps, and timing to develop the prostate market.
Also watch forOn the November 9 call, Axogen delays the 2027 start or says study results do not support market growth.
Why it matters: Axogen raised its 2026 revenue floor to $290 million. Results will show whether sales growth stays on track.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $290 million, including at least $7 million from BioCircuit.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $290 million, or BioCircuit revenue is below the $7 million floor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,308 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.