AxoGen, Inc. (AXGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.28+2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 88 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXGN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-28
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of such section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into future filings by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or under the Exchange Act, unless the Company expressly sets forth in such future filing that such in…
Why it matters: Valuation changes can signal how investors view the company's future. It reflects market sentiment.
Watch forThe valuation score goes up after the Q2 earnings release.
Also watch forThe valuation score goes down after the Q2 earnings release.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector growth picks up, it could benefit AxoGen's revenue and market position.
Watch forHealthcare sector revenue growth speeds up again. It moves back toward its highs, above 10%.
Also watch forHealthcare sector revenue growth slows down. It stays below 8%.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into performance and future guidance. They can impact stock price.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and margins are meeting or beating expectations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows big misses on revenue and margins.
Why it matters: Good results could improve Axogen's market position. They may prove their nerve repair products.
Supportive ifThey shared good news from the Nerve-RESTORE trial.
Worry ifThey had negative results from the Nerve-RESTORE trial. This could hurt credibility and market trust.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $414 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,930 loss on $10,000 · 19.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Having positive free cash flow is key for financial health. It shows Axogen can run its business without outside funding.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 is positive. This means cash from operations is more than capital expenses.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 remains negative, showing cash outflows exceed inflows.
Why it matters: Good results from the REPOSE study could boost Axogen's product trust and market acceptance. This may help future sales.
Supportive ifPositive results from the REPOSE study support Axoguard Nerve Cap.
Worry ifNegative results from the REPOSE study that undermine product claims.
Why it matters: Axogen's revenue growth of at least 24% shows it is doing well in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 24%, reaching at least $69.7 million.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue growth is below 24%, there may be problems with market execution.
Why it matters: A gross margin above 73% shows good cost control and a strong product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin remains above 73% in Q3.
Worry ifIf gross margin falls below 73%, it may mean rising cost pressures.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows good financial health and helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 reports positive free cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 shows negative free cash flow, suggesting financial strain.