Reading AYI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AYI free→Reading AYI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AYI free→NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although AYI trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $297.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $297 AYI trades at 16× p/e, below its 32× p/e peer median. Our $493 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.73 → $5.58 (-2.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$274.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,152.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Continued decline in cash flow could signal deeper issues in financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations falls below $89.1M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations stays stable or goes above $89.1M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AYI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 8, 2026, Acuity Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among the Company, the subsidiary borrowers from time to time party thereto, the various lenders from time to time party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The Credit Agreement provides for an unsecured revolving credit facility that matures in May 2031 with an initial maximum aggregate amount of availability of $800 mill…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AYI Acuity Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | high |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving profitability by managing costs effectively.
Continue to generate strong cash flow to support operations and investments.
Expand credit facilities to enhance financial flexibility and support growth.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income may show problems with managing costs.
Confirms:Operating income falls below $133M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income stays stable or goes above $133M.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is crucial for Acuity's operations and growth. It reflects the company's financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $100 million in Q3.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported below $70 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growing credit facilities can help with money management. It can also support growth plans.
Confirms:Look for news about a new credit facility or an increase over $800 million.
Disproves:Watch for no news on credit facilities or a cut in available credit.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could boost Acuity's market position.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 8% over the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 8% or slows down.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information set forth in