AIRCASTLE LTD (AYR)
IndustrialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.01+0.31%
Close 2020-03-27 · 1-day change
IndustrialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AYR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AYR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 20, 2026, Aircastle Advisor LLC (the “Borrower”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Aircastle Limited (the “Company”), entered into a Credit Agreement among the Borrower, Fifth Third Bank, National Association, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, New York Branch, The Huntington National Bank and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as joint lead arrangers, the lenders party thereto from time to time, Fifth Third Bank, National Association, as agen…
Why it matters: Lease rental revenue grew 6% year over year in Q1 2026. Growth below that level would weaken the recent revenue trend.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows lease rental revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifA later quarterly report shows lease rental revenue growth at or above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Q1 2026 net income was $34 million, down from $49.3 million a year earlier. Another lower result would show continued pressure on earnings.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows net income below $34 million.
Less concerning ifA later quarterly report shows net income at or above $34 million.
Why it matters: Utilization was 97.9% in Q1 2026, down from 99.5% a year earlier. A further fall could point to more aircraft sitting idle.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows fleet use below 97.9%.
Less concerning ifA later quarterly report shows fleet use at or above 97.9%.
Why it matters: Aircastle bought four aircraft for $117 million and sold five for $114 million in Q1. More buying than selling would show capital deployment, while the reverse would show continued asset sales.
Watch forA quarterly report shows more spending on aircraft purchases than money from sales. It lists how many aircraft were bought and sold.
Also watch forA quarterly report shows more money from aircraft sales than spending on purchases. It shows that more aircraft were sold than bought.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | Not available | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | Not available | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash from operations was $97.7 million in Q1 2026. A further drop would weaken evidence that cash flow stays strong.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows cash from operations below $97.7 million.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows cash from operations at or above $97.7 million.