AIRCASTLE LTD (AYR)
IndustrialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
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No price data
IndustrialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AYR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AYR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 20, 2026, Aircastle Advisor LLC (the “Borrower”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Aircastle Limited (the “Company”), entered into a Credit Agreement among the Borrower, Fifth Third Bank, National Association, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, New York Branch, The Huntington National Bank and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as joint lead arrangers, the lenders party thereto from time to time, Fifth Third Bank, National Association, as agen…
Why it matters: Acquiring more aircraft can improve revenue and market position. It shows the company's growth strategy is active.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of acquiring at least 3 aircraft in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new aircraft acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If there are fewer than 70 lessees, it may show less demand. This can affect revenue.
Worry ifThe number of lessees drops below 70.
Less concerning ifThe number of lessees remains at or above 70.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows the company can control costs and make cash. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income was more than $40 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating income was below $0.
Why it matters: This would show strong capital deployment and confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifThey will announce aircraft purchases over $200 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo new aircraft purchases or purchases below $200 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | Not available | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | Not available | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in credit terms can affect financial flexibility. They may also change growth plans.
Worry ifNew credit terms that raise borrowing costs or lower available funds.
Less concerning ifCredit terms that improve cash flow or lower borrowing costs.
Why it matters: If lease rental revenue growth slows, it may signal weaker demand in the aviation sector.
Worry ifQ2 lease rental revenue growth is reported below 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifLease rental revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show financial problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is reported below $30 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 remains above $30 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this task would improve the balance sheet. It would help future growth.
Supportive ifThe $650 million senior notes offering closes as planned on April 28, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or is significantly delayed.
Why it matters: A drop in fleet utilization may show less demand for leased planes.
Worry ifFleet use falls below 95%.
Less concerning ifFleet use remains above 95%.