Aytu BioPharma Inc (AYTU)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.81-5.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AYTU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 28.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 106.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
AYTU — M&A activity — Termination of Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-06-25
Termination of Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (the “Company”) and Lannett Company, Inc. (together with its affiliates, “Lannett”) mutually agreed to terminate, effective as of June 23, 2026, that certain exclusive license agreement entered into by the parties on May 11, 2022, as amended on July 6, 2023, and July 17, 2025 (collectively, the “Metadate Agreement”). In connection with the termination of the Metadate Agreement, the Company entered into a Term…
Why it matters: Cash funds the EXXUA launch while the company works toward steady positive earnings. A further drop could limit that support.
Worry ifThe next report shows cash below $26.3 million.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows cash at or above $26.3 million.
Why it matters: Aytu reported $0.5 million in Q4, but lost $3.7 million for the full year. More positive quarters would show progress toward its stated goal.
Supportive ifThe November 12 report shows Adjusted EBITDA above $0 for Q1 FY2027.
Worry ifThe November 12 report shows Adjusted EBITDA at or below $0 for Q1 FY2027.
Why it matters: EXXUA revenue rose from $2.4 million to $3.9 million. Another increase would show the launch is still gaining ground.
Supportive ifIn the November 12 report, EXXUA revenue is above $3.9 million.
Worry ifIn the November 12 report, EXXUA revenue is $3.9 million or less.
Why it matters: The ADHD portfolio brings in cash, but generic competition and less promotion weigh on sales. A decline could weaken that support for EXXUA.
Worry ifThe next report shows ADHD portfolio revenue below $10.4 million.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows ADHD portfolio revenue at or above $10.4 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,759 loss on $10,000 · 37.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Prescriptions rose to 3,323 in Q4 from 1,398 in Q3. More growth would support the launch story.
Supportive ifThe next report shows more than 3,323 EXXUA prescriptions for the quarter.
Worry ifThe next report shows 3,323 or fewer EXXUA prescriptions for the quarter.