Aytu BioPharma Inc (AYTU)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.21-3.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AYTU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
AYTU — M&A activity — Termination of Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-06-25
Termination of Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (the “Company”) and Lannett Company, Inc. (together with its affiliates, “Lannett”) mutually agreed to terminate, effective as of June 23, 2026, that certain exclusive license agreement entered into by the parties on May 11, 2022, as amended on July 6, 2023, and July 17, 2025 (collectively, the “Metadate Agreement”). In connection with the termination of the Metadate Agreement, the Company entered into a Term…
Why it matters: Changes in cash balance show how well Aytu is doing after the EXXUA launch.
Watch forCash balance increases to over $30 million by Q4 2026.
Also watch forCash balance decreases below $25 million by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A could signal strategic shifts that impact Aytu's growth and market position.
Worry ifA new partnership or purchase is announced.
Less concerning ifNo new developments in M&A activity over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong growth in EXXUA revenue would show successful market entry and adoption. This is crucial for Aytu's future.
Supportive ifEXXUA net revenue exceeds $5 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifEXXUA net revenue remains below $2 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The launch of EXXUA is key for Aytu's growth. It could boost revenue significantly.
Supportive ifAytu successfully launches EXXUA in Q4 2025 as planned.
Worry ifThe launch of EXXUA is delayed or canceled.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $501 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,187 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in cash balance will show how well the company is managing its finances amid the EXXUA launch.
Watch forCash balance rises to over $30 million by September 2026. This shows good cash management.
Also watch forCash balance will drop below $25 million by September 2026. This raises worries about money stability.
Why it matters: The termination may change Aytu's products and how it makes money.
Worry ifAytu reports no negative impact on revenue from the termination in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifAytu reports a revenue drop due to the agreement ending in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows that costs are managed well. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA improves to less than $(1.5) million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA worsens to more than $(3.5) million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Ending the Metadate Agreement may change revenue streams. Keeping an eye on this will help understand future financial performance.
Worry ifRevenue from ADHD Portfolio stays stable even after the agreement ends.
Less concerning ifADHD Portfolio revenue drops a lot because of the agreement ending.
Why it matters: Ending the Metadate Agreement could change Aytu's plans and partnerships.
Watch forAytu announces a new partnership or deal after the end.
Also watch forNo new news on partnerships or deals after the end.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than -$3 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens to more than -$5 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Stopping the drop in revenue is key for Aytu's success. It also builds investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue grows to above $15 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline below $12 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in ADHD revenue shows problems keeping market share against competitors.
Worry ifADHD Portfolio revenue drops below $8 million in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifADHD Portfolio revenue stabilizes or grows above $9 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: News on this agreement may affect future revenue and partnerships.
Watch forA new deal is announced that offsets the effects of ending the Metadate agreement.
Also watch forNo new partnerships are announced, leading to further revenue concerns.