AZUL SA (AZUL)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.49+3.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AZUL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment may show a weak economy. This can lower air travel demand.
Worry ifUnemployment claims increase beyond 250,000 for the week ending September 3.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims stay below 200,000 for the week ending September 3.
Why it matters: CPI impacts how people think about inflation. High inflation can lower spending on travel.
Worry ifCPI shows an increase above 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifCPI shows an increase below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts demand for air travel and cargo services. Strong growth helps Azul's revenue.
Supportive ifGDP growth rate revised up from the initial estimate to above 2%.
Worry ifGDP growth rate revised down to below 1%.
Why it matters: A strong jobs report could boost consumer confidence and travel demand.
Supportive ifNon-farm payrolls increase by more than 300,000 in the September report.
Worry ifNon-farm payrolls increase by less than 100,000 in the September report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,971 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Interest rates change how much it costs to borrow money. This affects how much people spend and how Azul operates.
Watch forFOMC decides to lower interest rates or keep them unchanged.
Also watch forFOMC raises interest rates.
Why it matters: Inflation affects how much people spend. This can change the demand for travel.
Watch forCPI increases more than 0.4% month over month in September.
Also watch forCPI rises less than 0.2% month over month in September.
Why it matters: Higher prices for producers can raise costs for airlines. This may affect their operations.
Worry ifPPI rises more than 0.5% month over month in September.
Less concerning ifPPI increases less than 0.2% month over month in September.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how confident consumers feel. It also shows how much they can spend. This affects travel demand.
Watch forRetail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forRetail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show economic problems. This can lower travel demand.
Worry ifWeekly claims report shows a decrease below 200,000.
Less concerning ifWeekly claims report shows an increase above 300,000.
Why it matters: Employment data shows how confident consumers feel. This affects how much they travel by air.
Watch forUnemployment rate drops below 4% in the report.
Also watch forUnemployment rate rises above 5% in the report.
Why it matters: Inflation impacts how much consumers spend. It also affects costs for airlines like Azul.
Watch forCPI shows inflation rate below 3% year over year.
Also watch forCPI shows inflation rate above 4% year over year.
Why it matters: This index affects costs for companies like Azul. Changes can impact pricing strategies.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease in inflation, suggesting lower costs for Azul.
Also watch forPPI goes up a lot. This means higher costs that could hurt profits.
Why it matters: CPI affects how much people spend. It can change demand for Azul's services.
Watch forCPI goes down. This shows that consumers have more money to spend.
Also watch forCPI goes up. This suggests that people are spending less and demand may drop.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision affects interest rates. This changes Azul's costs and what consumers want.
Watch forFOMC keeps rates the same. This helps keep financing conditions stable for Azul.
Also watch forFOMC raises rates. This makes financing more expensive and could slow down demand.