Ball Corporation (BALL)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.38+6.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BALL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BALL — President transition
Dated 2026-10-19
President — Mandy Glew: The filing details the retirement of a business unit president with a named successor and the departure of another unit president with a named successor, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of a top executive.
Why it matters: The sector data points to shrinking revenue, but recent signals hint that the decline may be easing. Positive growth would mark a change.
Supportive ifThe Materials sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive.
Worry ifThe Materials sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or below zero.
Why it matters: Ball says cash flow supports shareholder returns and long-term projects. Falling short would weaken that plan.
Supportive ifBall reports 2026 free cash flow greater than $900 million.
Worry ifBall reports 2026 free cash flow of $900 million or less, or lowers its goal.
Why it matters: Ball returned $222 million in the first half and says it is on track. The year-end total tests that commitment.
Supportive ifBall reports at least $800 million in 2026 share buybacks and dividends.
Worry ifBall reports less than $800 million in 2026 share buybacks and dividends, or withdraws the goal.
Why it matters: Ball has kept this goal for six quarters. Results above 10% would back its growth plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 comparable diluted EPS grows more than 10% from 2025.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 comparable diluted EPS grows 10% or less, or Ball cuts its growth goal.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,211 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.