Ball Corporation (BALL)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.67-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BALL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BALL — officer change
Dated 2025-11-21
Director — Mr. Fisher: Mr. Fisher resigned from the Board of Directors and tendered his departure with severance benefits.
Why it matters: Shipment growth shows demand and efficiency. Lower growth may show market weakness.
Worry ifGlobal aluminum packaging shipments grow less than 4% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGlobal aluminum packaging shipments grow at or above 4% in Q3.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for returns to shareholders. If it falls short, it may show problems.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $900 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $900 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key target for Ball. Falling short may signal issues in execution or market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS growth was below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable diluted EPS growth meets or exceeds 10%.
Why it matters: This is a key commitment from management. Not meeting it could signal weaker financial health.
Worry ifTotal returns for shareholders were less than $800 million in 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal shareholder returns were at or above $800 million in 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $220 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,211 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Negative volume growth may show weak demand and problems in operations.
Worry ifBeverage packaging volume growth turns negative year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifBeverage packaging volume growth is still positive year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A shift in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery. This impacts Ball's market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: A smooth leadership change is important for focus and stability.
Watch forThe leadership change was successful with a clear plan.
Also watch forThere is ongoing uncertainty about the leadership change.
Why it matters: Updates on leaders can change company plans and affect investor trust. Clear direction is key.
Watch forGood news about leadership changes and company plans.
Also watch forBad news or doubt about the leadership change.
Why it matters: Volume growth in this area shows demand and success.
Worry ifEMEA segment volume growth is below mid-single digits.
Less concerning ifEMEA segment volume growth is at or above mid-single digits.
Why it matters: Aluminum packaging demand is vital for Ball's growth. A decline could indicate broader market issues.
Watch forAluminum packaging demand is going up. Shipments increase each year.
Also watch forAluminum packaging demand is going down. Shipments fall each year.