Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ball Corporation (BALL)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.91-0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.52 → 4.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BALL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS growth of 10-plus percent | A primary condition in Ball Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY EPS growth. | Intact | EPS growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26 | Diluted EPS growth: -130.51% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY EPS growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-130.508475 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BALL is an established business with a growth-and-cash-generation thesis, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent momentum and quality measures improving, but earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation appears broadly aligned with the evidence: the peer comparison is near parity, and the expectations gap is small. The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified, with low fragility, rather than showing a clear valuation discount or premium.
Near-term results have been solid: comparable diluted EPS rose from 76 cents in 2025-Q1 to $1.03 in 2026-Q2, and management remains on track with its 10-plus percent annual EPS growth priority. Free cash flow delivery is less certain, despite record adjusted free cash flow in 2025 and guidance above $900 million for 2026; leadership transitions and a possible guidance cut are near-term risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management maintaining earnings growth and delivering its cash-flow and shareholder-return priorities. Sector strength could support the business backdrop if PKG, SW, and AMCR continue to report well, while weaker results or lower guidance from those peers could remove that tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, with improving company momentum and a supportive sector backdrop, but fragile earnings quality and execution risks limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain on track to deliver our long-term objective of 4 to 6 percent operating earnings growth while continuing to generate strong cash flow and grow EVA across the business.” “Supported by our resilient business model, we are well positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth of aluminum packaging, deliver our target of greater than 10 percent annual EPS growth, and return significant value to shareholders."” Revenue was $4.188 billion in 2026-Q3.
Generate free cash flow over $900 million | Free cash flow exceeds $900 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $467M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=900 million USD FCF. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026467,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain on track to deliver our long-term objective of 4 to 6 percent operating earnings growth while continuing to generate strong cash flow and grow EVA across the business.” “We remain on track to deliver our free cash flow objectives for the year, driven by business performance and our strong financial position.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Successful leadership transition with new CEO | The company has a stable leadership transition. | Intact | Significant leadership disruption or negative CEO news | No disruption Q3 earnings beat, $800M shareholder return, and orderly executive succession filings indicate stable leadership. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.52 → $4.51 · observed estimates
$14.95B → $15.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.52 | $14,994,918,119 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.52 | $14,949,075,260 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.52 | $15,548,135,430 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.52 | $15,533,830,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.52 | $15,533,831,578 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.52 | $15,533,831,578 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.52 | $15,533,831,578 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.52 | $15,533,831,578 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.52 | $15,533,831,578 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.52 | $15,533,849,792 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.52 | $15,598,761,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.52 | $15,595,509,683 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.52 | $15,595,509,683 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.52 | $15,595,369,499 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.52 | $15,598,107,160 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.52 | $15,598,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.52 | $15,598,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.52 | $15,598,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.52 | $15,598,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.52 | $15,598,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.52 | $15,599,686,633 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.52 | $15,599,686,633 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.52 | $15,587,071,249 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.51 | $15,662,485,887 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.51 | $15,720,902,554 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.