Ball Corporation (BALL)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.67-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ball Corporation grows earnings over 10% a year. Free cash flow exceeds $900 million. The company has a stable leadership transition. Valuation is attractive versus peers with a PE of 17.4 versus 23.5.
Revenue fell sharply from $3.38B in 2025-Q2 to $2.20B in 2025-Q4. Leadership changes may disrupt execution. Profit growth could slow if demand weakens or costs rise.
The price is about 0% above our $62.84 fair value. Analysts expect 6.3% revenue growth. We see upside if Ball hits its 10%+ EPS growth target and free cash flow goals.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26
Breaks if: Significant leadership disruption or negative CEO news
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial results have been strong, and management is on track with its goals.
The market currently prices BALL as cheap compared to its peers, indicating a gap in expectations. There is a low level of fragility in its execution, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Management is focused on achieving over 10 percent EPS growth and generating significant free cash flow. Although there is a mixed outlook on free cash flow generation, recent financial performance has shown positive momentum.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on its financial targets. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance from sector peers could influence BALL's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view of strong growth. The company achieved EPS growth of over 10 percent, reinforcing its positive outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this assessment.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, BALL is positioned well in its industry, but it faces risks that could affect its performance. Not investment advice.