Battalion Oil Corp (BATL)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.29-0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BATL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BATL — capital allocation — Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-07
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Why it matters: This venture may improve production and cut costs a lot.
Supportive ifDocuments for the drilling venture will be signed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo progress on the drilling venture by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show financial performance and challenges. Investors will respond to the results.
Watch forThe earnings report shows higher revenue or fewer losses.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses or revenue decline.
Why it matters: This project could save Battalion up to $6 million each year. It will also make operations better.
Supportive ifThe pipeline project is done and running by early Q3 2026.
Worry ifPipeline project is delayed beyond early Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows Battalion can grow and increase production.
Supportive ifProduction volumes increase to over 15,000 Boe/d by Q3 2026 as a result of the program.
Worry ifProduction is below 12,578 Boe/d. This shows delays in the development program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$377 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,086 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,369 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback helps the balance sheet. It also reduces future debts.
Supportive ifCompletion of the preferred stock repurchase agreement with Gen IV.
Worry ifThe repurchase agreement is not completed as planned.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost Battalion's growth and resources.
Watch forThe acquisition of Ward County assets is done and announced.
Also watch forAcquisition plans are canceled or delayed a lot.
Why it matters: If Battalion Oil's revenue growth improves, it may show good changes in the energy sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Frequent changes in leaders can change plans and affect trust. Stability helps management.
Worry ifThere is news of new stable leaders or current leaders staying.
Less concerning ifMore resignations or problems in the leadership team.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Battalion is recovering. Investors want to see better production and fewer losses.
Watch forEarnings report shows adjusted EBITDA rising from $10 million in Q1 2026.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted EBITDA is below $10 million or not rising.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifAll shares in the buyback plan are bought back.
Worry ifThe buyback program is not finished or is cut back a lot.
Why it matters: Success in drilling could increase production. It would also support the Monument Draw plan.
Supportive ifDrilling begins as scheduled before the end of August 2026.
Worry ifDrilling is delayed beyond August 2026.
Why it matters: Lower net debt shows better financial health. This helps with future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet debt reported below $65 million in the next financial update.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $65 million.
Why it matters: Lower costs per BOE help make more money. They also improve how the company runs.
Supportive ifLease operating and workover costs per BOE are below $9.
Worry ifLease operating and workover costs per BOE go above $9.