Baxter International (BAX)
NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$22.86+1.22%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.86. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 BAX trades at 11× p/e, below its 37× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 360% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.25/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $14.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $5.80 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $3.50 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $23.38 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $71.21 | 36.5 | 1.95 | Mgmt | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $3.09 | 6.2 | 2.84 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $33.22 | 24.0 | 1.39 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $74.94 | 36.5 | 2.05 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $61.05 | 2.8 | 21.98 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $15.03 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $22.55 | 11.0 | 2.05 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $77.76 | 36.5 | 2.13 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $66.64 | 36.5 | 1.82 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $29.21 | 24.0 | 1.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $81.84 | 36.5 | 2.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $66.98 | 2.8 | 24.11 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $24.62 | 11.0 | 2.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $63.76 | 36.5 | 1.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $26.81 | 24.0 | 1.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $89.37 | 36.5 | 2.45 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $73.14 | 2.8 | 26.33 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $26.89 | 11.0 | 2.45 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.