Baxter International (BAX)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.83+1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers
BAX — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-19
CFO — John Rogers: The filing announces the appointment of an external candidate as CFO, which is a significant management change but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Baxter will choose a permanent CEO soon. This choice will affect its plans and investor trust. Good leadership can improve how the company runs.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a permanent CEO who has a strong track record in the healthcare sector.
Worry ifNo progress reported in the CEO search after three months.
Why it matters: A new CEO can set a fresh direction for Baxter. This could impact growth and strategy.
Supportive ifThe Board of Directors announced a permanent CEO.
Worry ifContinued interim leadership without a permanent CEO for more than six months.
Why it matters: A stable leadership team helps the company grow and boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifBaxter names a permanent CEO. This shows leadership stability.
Worry ifNo permanent CEO was named by the end of Q3. This shows leadership uncertainty.
Why it matters: Updates on GPS will indicate how well Baxter is improving its operations and financial performance. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports over 300 projects started under GPS. This shows they want to improve.
Worry ifManagement reports fewer than 200 initiatives started under GPS. This shows a lack of progress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,542 loss on $10,000 · 35.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Going above this level would show that management expects better finances and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth reported above 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows a promise to share profits.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.01/share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing after selling Kidney Care.
Watch forEarnings results show operational sales growth of 4% or more year over year.
Also watch forEarnings results show sales growth under 2% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Tariff effects could raise costs and lower profits, changing the financial outlook.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a big rise in costs due to tariffs.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows little or no effect from tariffs.
Why it matters: A new CFO might bring new ideas. This could change financial management and investor trust.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong track record in the industry.
Also watch forNo announcement or delays in the CFO transition process.
Why it matters: A new CEO could set a fresh direction for Baxter and impact its strategy. Investors will look for stability and vision in leadership.
Supportive ifThe company will name a permanent CEO before the earnings call on July 30, 2026.
Worry ifNo permanent CEO is appointed by the next earnings call, leaving interim leadership in place.
Why it matters: The total consideration shows how well the tender offers were accepted. It may affect Baxter's money management.
Watch forA press release on August 18, 2026, says the total amount for the tender offers is over $600 million.
Also watch forNo press release or a total amount below $600 million is issued.
Why it matters: Tariffs may change costs and profits, affecting Baxter's financial results.
Worry ifBaxter will give a detailed update on tariff effects during the Q2 earnings call.
Less concerning ifNo mention of tariff effects during the Q2 earnings call shows limited impact.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -1% would signal ongoing challenges in Baxter's core operations.
Worry ifQ2 organic sales growth reported worse than -1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 organic sales growth stays the same or gets better compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps financial health and funds growth projects.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow exceeds $200 million, indicating strong cash generation.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow falls below $150 million, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: The CFO change can affect the company's money plans and stability. Changes in leadership can shake investor trust.
Watch forA new CFO is successfully onboarded with a clear plan by October 2026.
Also watch forOngoing problems or unclear money plans after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Tariffs may raise costs and hurt margins, affecting Baxter's financial results.
Worry ifThe company says tariffs will impact less than expected. They are keeping margin guidance.
Less concerning ifThe company lowers its margin guidance because of tariff effects.
Why it matters: Tariffs could affect costs and margins. Clarity on this will inform financial outlook.
Worry ifManagement will give a clear update on tariff effects in the Q2 earnings call.
Less concerning ifNo mention of tariffs or their impact during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: If organic sales grow, it shows that management is more positive. It also shows strong operations.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth is over 3%. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth is at or below 2%. This shows ongoing challenges.