BAX
Baxter InternationalNYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, BAX has a composite score of 17.4, categorized with a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a high confidence level of 81.4, but it faces elevated market risk at 64.2. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, rates, growth, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.01
- Slope (norm)-0.75
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.37 (-15.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 56.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
29 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reiterate full-year 2026 financial outlookgrowthbehind7% progress
2/12: “Reiterates full-year 2026 financial outlook: Adjusted earnings from continuing operations per diluted share: $1.85 to $2.05.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Baxter has consistently reiterated its full-year 2026 financial outlook with adjusted earnings guidance of $1.85 to $2.05 per share. However, the financials show a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving these targets.
- 2.CFO transitiontalentwatch50% progress
3/16: “Transition of Joel Grade as CFO; Appointment of Anita Zielinski as Interim CFO.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Baxter announced a CFO transition with Anita Zielinski appointed as Interim CFO. This change in financial leadership comes amid financial challenges, including a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, suggesting potential impacts on financial strategy and execution.
- 3.Dividend declarationcapital allocationmixed37% progress
4/30: “Effective April 29, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Baxter declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share, reflecting its ongoing capital allocation strategy. Despite this, the company reported a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, indicating financial strain and mixed progress in capital management.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $0.59 – $0.62 | $0.65 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.65 – $0.67 | $0.68 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.77 – $0.79 | $0.49 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.77 – $0.81 | $0.58 | miss |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.47 – $0.50 | $0.55 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.59 – $0.63 | $0.59 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.58 – $0.62 | $0.69 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.52 – $0.57 | $0.44 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −50%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.42 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 19/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 59/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 8 guided quarters · 34.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reiterate full-year 2026 financial outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Baxter continues to emphasize its commitment to achieving its full-year 2026 financial targets.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Baxter has consistently reiterated its full-year 2026 financial outlook with adjusted earnings guidance of $1.85 to $2.05 per share. However, the financials show a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving these targets.
7%CEO/CFO:“Reiterates full-year 2026 financial outlook: Adjusted earnings from continuing operations per diluted share: $1.85 to $2.05.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Reiterates full-year 2026 financial outlook: Adjusted earnings from continuing operations per diluted share: $1.85 to $2.05.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Baxter also announced today that the company is reiterating its full-year 2026 financial outlook provided on Feb. 12, 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Reiterates full-year 2026 financial outlook: Adjusted earnings from continuing operations per diluted share: $1.85 to $2.05.”
- #2
CFO transition
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Baxter is undergoing a transition in its CFO position, impacting financial leadership.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Baxter announced a CFO transition with Anita Zielinski appointed as Interim CFO. This change in financial leadership comes amid financial challenges, including a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, suggesting potential impacts on financial strategy and execution.
50%CEO/CFO:“Transition of Joel Grade as CFO; Appointment of Anita Zielinski as Interim CFO.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Transition of Joel Grade as CFO; Appointment of Anita Zielinski as Interim CFO.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Appointment of Michael R. McDonnell to its Board of Directors.”
- #3
Dividend declaration
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Baxter has declared a quarterly cash dividend, reflecting its capital allocation strategy.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Baxter declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share, reflecting its ongoing capital allocation strategy. Despite this, the company reported a net income loss of $731 million in 2025-Q4, indicating financial strain and mixed progress in capital management.
37%CEO/CFO:“Effective April 29, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Effective April 29, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Effective February 11, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
41 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BAX Baxter International | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 59 - 2026-04-309d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Effective April 29, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 1, 2026, to stockholders of record as of May 29, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 42 - 2026-03-161mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Transition of Joel Grade as CFO; Appointment of Anita Zielinski as Interim CFO On March 16, 2026, Baxter International Inc. (the “Company”) announced that, as of such date (the “Transition Date”), Joel Grade’s service as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) of the Company has ceased and, as of such date, Mr. Grade has transi…
executive changeneutralscore 23 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Michael R. McDonnell On February 10, 2026, Baxter International Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Michael R. McDonnell to its Board of Directors (the “Board”), effective February 13, 2026. Mr. McDonnell has also been appointed to serve as a member of the Audit Committee. Michael McDonnell served as the Executive Vice President and Chief…
executive changeneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.