Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.08-6.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.77 → 2.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BBWI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations increases to at least $244 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations rose to $244 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $188 million in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $72M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=244 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 202672,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer brand business with a transformation element, rather than a clear turnaround or a low-risk compounder. Its multi-year thesis is intact, but the signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as execution remains early.
The valuation evidence describes BBWI as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, earnings quality is robust, and management slightly raised its fiscal 2026 free cash flow outlook in the third quarter. Still, sales declined in recent quarters, and progress on the Consumer First Formula transformation remains mixed and early; erratic earnings surprises and a downward trend in surprises add risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether the transformation produces steadier sales progress and whether cash generation stays near management’s fiscal 2026 outlook. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness among major consumer discretionary companies could shape the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BBWI combines peer-relative cheapness and strong recent financial performance with elevated risk and mixed execution evidence. The thesis remains intact, but progress on the transformation and upcoming guidance are key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Bath & Body Works keeps steady dividend payouts at $0.20 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.20 in any quarter of 2026 |
Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0.20 USD per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate approximately $600 million free cash flow in fiscal 2026 | The company aims for $600 million free cash flow in 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $500 million in FY2026 | Free cash flow: $23M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=600 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 202623,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In fiscal 2026, we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $600 million.” “2026 Guidance The company is maintaining its full-year 2026 guidance of net sales to decline between 4.5% to 2.5% compared to $7,291 million in fiscal 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue remains near $7.3 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Bath & Body Works, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.29 billion USD. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $7.0 billion in FY2026 | Revenue: $1.514B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.29 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 20261,514,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.84 → $2.77 · observed estimates
$7.23B → $7.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.84 | $7,226,744,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.86 | $7,231,178,110 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.84 | $7,227,804,873 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.85 | $7,230,508,373 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.85 | $7,230,508,373 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.85 | $7,230,508,373 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.85 | $7,230,508,373 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.85 | $7,230,490,920 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.85 | $7,230,490,920 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.85 | $7,230,490,920 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.85 | $7,230,490,920 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.78 | $7,215,871,132 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.78 | $7,222,033,356 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.78 | $7,222,033,356 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.78 | $7,222,033,356 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.78 | $7,222,033,356 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.77 | $7,222,033,356 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.76 | $7,221,823,886 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.76 | $7,221,823,886 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.76 | $7,221,823,886 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.77 | $7,216,703,643 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.77 | $7,216,677,711 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.77 | $7,217,065,211 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.75 | $7,213,281,812 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.76 | $7,214,714,716 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.76 | $7,214,714,716 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.77 | $7,216,277,336 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.77 | $7,216,277,336 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.77 | $7,216,277,336 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.77 | $7,216,277,336 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.77 | $7,216,277,336 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.77 | $7,219,051,249 | 12 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.