BayCom Corp. (BCML)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.80+1.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCML
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BCML — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-19
OTHER EVENTS On August 19, 2026, BayCom Corp (the “Company”) issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.30 per share, payable on October 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 10, 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from its recent loss. Investors will look for signs of improved performance.
Watch forA return to net income, showing positive earnings per share for Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet loss continues for Q3 2026. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: The amount set aside for credit losses shows how well the company handles credit quality. High amounts may mean there are still problems.
Worry ifProvisions for credit losses fell from $5.2 million in Q2. This shows better credit quality.
Less concerning ifProvisions are high or rising. This means there are still problems with credit quality.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality is crucial for maintaining investor trust and financial health. It impacts overall growth.
Worry ifCredit quality metrics show no major problems in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCredit quality metrics show a drop. This could mean there are problems ahead.
Why it matters: Steady loan growth is key for making money. It shows management's growth plans.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than $64 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease or grow less than $64 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,429 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.30 per share in the next declaration.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut below $0.30 per share.
Why it matters: Continued loan growth will show if the company is successfully building its growth engine. This is key for future profitability.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than 3.2% in Q3, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifLoan growth is flat or negative. This suggests trouble in getting new business.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may show lower credit quality. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming loans increase above $10 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans fall below $9 million.
Why it matters: If net income returns, it shows recovery from the loss. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows net income above $0.75 per share.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows a net loss or income below $0.75 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show management's confidence. It reflects their view on future earnings.
Watch forAn increase in the quarterly dividend above $0.30 per share is announced.
Also watch forThe company announces a cut or pause in the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Improving earnings would show that management's focus on growth is working. It could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 shows an increase from Q1, exceeding $8.18M.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 stays at or below $8.18M.