Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$179.71-1.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.63 → 5.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BCPC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or improve gross profit margins | Profit margins improve with gross profit rising from $88M to $101M in one year. | Intact | gross profit falls below $88M next quarter | Gross profit: $105.714M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit at or above $101M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 2026105,714,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a steady-growth business with a durable premium, rather than a turnaround or a speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact after strong recent financial performance, though confidence is medium and execution on strategic growth initiatives is mixed.
BCPC is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 1.8 and a durable premium identified as the main driver. The expectations gap is modest at 0.07, and the priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently.
Near-term results show revenue growth and higher sales in all three segments, alongside two recent earnings beats. Management has repeatedly emphasized strategic growth, but delivery on specific differentiated nutrition innovations is not quantified. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though peer misses and a deep miss in BCPC’s recent history remain cautions.
The near-term case would weaken if BCPC cuts guidance on its next call. Over the multi-year view, execution on growth initiatives and continued sales growth across segments matter, while strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could support or erode the Materials sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued broad-based growth and execution, with an expensive valuation making guidance and sector signals important to watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income increased from $51M to $56M, showing good cost control. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $51M next quarter |
Operating income: $62.437M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: operating income at or above $55M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 202662,437,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually | A primary condition in Balchem Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6.7% next year | Revenue growth: 8.63% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 23, 20268.633642 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.11 → $5.72 · observed estimates
$1.17B → $1.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.11 | $1,166,878,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.14 | $1,176,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.14 | $1,176,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.21 | $1,191,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.21 | $1,191,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.21 | $1,191,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.21 | $1,191,328,990 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.27 | $1,195,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.27 | $1,195,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.51 | $1,166,878,989 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.63 | $1,195,777,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.65 | $1,196,852,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.72 | $1,196,852,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.72 | $1,196,852,707 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.72 | $1,199,117,209 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.72 | $1,199,117,209 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.72 | $1,199,117,209 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.72 | $1,199,117,209 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.72 | $1,199,117,209 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.