BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.96-1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCRX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.96 BCRX trades at 5.8× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $14–$29. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $17.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $19.03 | 14.1 | 1.35 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.64 | 16.1 | 1.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $10.31 | 2.9 | 3.55 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$14.00 – $29.00 (median $17.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $30.06 |
| 16.1 |
| 1.87 |
| Triangulated |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $2.34 | 16.1 | 0.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $3.36 | 2.9 | 1.16 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1.59 | 2.9 | 0.55 | guidance | medium |