BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.63-7.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -64.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCRX — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-08-04
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On June 29, 2026, the Company announced its plan to discontinue the Company’s internal discovery programs and close its Discovery Center of Excellence facility in Birmingham, Alabama (the “Plan”) as part of the Company’s ongoing strategic evolution to strengthen its rare disease pipeline. At the time of the Original Report, the Company was not able to make a good faith estimate of the costs it would incur in connection with the Plan. The Comp…
Why it matters: The small Phase 1 study is an early test of BCX17725 in Netherton syndrome. The company plans to report data by year-end.
Watch forBioCryst reports Part 4 data by year-end, with results that support further study in patients.
Also watch forBioCryst reports results that do not support further study, or gives no data by year-end.
Why it matters: The closure is part of the plan to cut costs and shift research to outside partners. The 2026 expense guide is $420M-$440M.
Watch forBioCryst closes its Birmingham site by year-end. It keeps 2026 non-GAAP operating expenses at or below $440M.
Also watch forThe closure slips past year-end or costs push 2026 non-GAAP operating expenses above $440M.
Why it matters: ORLADEYO drove most of the company's sales. Q2 revenue was $158.2M, and full-year guidance is $625M-$645M.
Watch forQ3 ORLADEYO revenue keeps the company on pace for at least $625M in 2026, with pellet prescriptions gaining traction.
Also watch forQ3 ORLADEYO revenue puts the company below pace for $625M, or management cuts the $625M-$645M guide.
Why it matters: The ALPHA-ORBIT trial tests navenibart doses given every three or six months. Positive results could support its next steps in HAE.
Watch forBioCryst reports Q3 2027 results for both doses, and the trial meets its stated efficacy goals.
Also watch forEither dose misses its stated efficacy goals, or the Q3 2027 results are delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,114 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The higher total revenue guide includes a $55.7M navenibart license payment recorded in Q2. Future quarters can show underlying sales growth.
Watch forQ3 revenue keeps the company on pace for at least $690M in 2026, while ORLADEYO sales remain near plan.
Also watch forQ3 revenue puts the company below pace for $690M, or management lowers its $690M-$715M total revenue guide.