BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.96-1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -16.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCRX — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-08-04
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On June 29, 2026, the Company announced its plan to discontinue the Company’s internal discovery programs and close its Discovery Center of Excellence facility in Birmingham, Alabama (the “Plan”) as part of the Company’s ongoing strategic evolution to strengthen its rare disease pipeline. At the time of the Original Report, the Company was not able to make a good faith estimate of the costs it would incur in connection with the Plan. The Comp…
Why it matters: Data from the navenibart trial is key for future approvals and market chances.
Supportive ifTop-line results from the navenibart trial reported in Q3 2027.
Worry ifDelay in reporting top-line results beyond Q3 2027.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good cost control. It helps overall profits.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating expenses are between $420M and $440M.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating costs are over $440M.
Why it matters: The earnings call will provide insights on revenue and cost management. It is a chance for the company to clarify its strategy.
Watch forManagement gives a good outlook or raises guidance during the call.
Also watch forManagement lowers guidance or shows worries about revenue or costs.
Why it matters: Staying within expense limits shows good cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifQ2 non-GAAP operating costs were between $420M and $470M.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP operating costs went over $470M. This shows bad cost control.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and good pipeline work.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported for Q3 2026 is at least $690 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported for Q3 2026 is below $690 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth prospects. This is critical for assessing performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could expand BioCryst's capabilities and market reach. It is a key strategic move.
Supportive ifThey will announce when the acquisition is complete.
Worry ifThere are delays in completing the acquisition.
Why it matters: The closure could affect R&D and future plans. We need clarity on its effects.
Watch forManagement shares a clear timeline. They explain why they will close the Birmingham facility.
Also watch forThere are delays or problems with closing the Birmingham facility. This was not expected.
Why it matters: Good data could support BioCryst's focus on rare diseases and help its growth.
Supportive ifData for BCX17725 shows big improvement in patients with Netherton syndrome.
Worry ifData shows no big improvement. This raises doubts about the program's success.
Why it matters: Strong ORLADEYO growth shows high demand. This helps overall revenue plans.
Supportive ifQ3 ORLADEYO revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 ORLADEYO revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Good data from BCX17725 may improve the pipeline and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifData from the BCX17725 trial shows positive proof-of-concept results.
Worry ifData from the BCX17725 trial shows negative or inconclusive results.
Why it matters: The closure affects operations and costs, which may impact future growth.
Watch forThe Birmingham facility will close by the end of 2026.
Also watch forThere may be delays or changes to when the Birmingham facility will close.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,455 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.