Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.63-7.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.58 → 0.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BCRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective integration of Astria Therapeutics acquisition | The acquisition of Astria Therapeutics expands their pipeline. | Intact | Acquisition integration fails or pipeline expansion stalls in 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and restructuring story, not a proven durable compounder, because the company remains loss-making and management execution is marked volatile. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding up relative to its industry, but the evidence is only medium confidence.
The valuation evidence points to BCRX as cheap versus peers, while also showing a peer premium and a negative expectations gap, so the signals are mixed. The pricing tag is justified and no fragility gates fired, but the snapshot does not say exactly what growth or earnings the market assumes.
Near term, management is on track with its higher 2026 total revenue guidance of $690M to $715M, while the lower operating expense range and shift away from internal discovery are mixed. The August earnings beat and muted price reaction leave the thesis intact, but the risk label has risen to elevated and recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The key company-specific test is whether BCRX maintains its raised guidance; a reversal and cut would also damage management credibility. Weaker job growth could add pressure across healthcare names, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on revenue delivery, cost control, and a credible transition toward external innovation. Losses, volatile execution, and elevated risk keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| They lowered operating expenses guidance to $420M-$440M, showing cost control. |
| Intact |
| Operating expenses exceed $440 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful restructuring to focus on rare disease pipeline | Restructuring focuses resources on rare disease drugs. | Intact | Restructuring delays or disrupts pipeline progress beyond 2026 | Qualitative: Restructuring executed (June 2026), Q3 2026 earnings beat, 2026 opex guidance $415M-$425M BioCryst completed restructuring in June 2026, beat Q3 2026 estimates, and provided 2026 opex guidance of $415M-$425M. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain 2026 revenue between $635M and $660M | A primary condition in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $635 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $635 million in FY26 | Revenue: $180.292M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $635 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026180,292,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.00 → $0.56 · observed estimates
$0.73B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.63 | $734,899,528 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.63 | $734,899,478 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.00 | $726,239,810 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.99 | $735,535,480 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.99 | $735,535,480 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.94 | $737,283,560 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.94 | $737,283,560 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.94 | $737,283,560 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.55 | $740,993,428 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.57 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $740,993,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.58 | $740,991,818 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.58 | $744,655,240 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.59 | $744,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.56 | $742,655,290 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.