Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.66-12.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BDTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations into 2028 | The company aims to maintain cash to fund operations into 2028 with $118.3 million as of 2026-Q1. | Intact | cash falls below $100 million before H2 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BDTX is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, meaning its business depends on medicines still being tested. The thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence and a muted response to recent events.
The available valuation signal describes BDTX as cheap versus peers, though confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence suggests weak execution is recognized, but it does not show that all business risks are reflected in expectations.
Over the next few quarters, clinical progress is the main fundamental support: management reported positive Phase 2 results for silevertinib in frontline NSCLC and is starting a trial in EGFRvIII-positive GBM. Cash and investments declined to $110.5 million by 2026-Q2, while management continues to state that funding should last into the second half of 2028; expense control is mixed, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.
The multi-year view depends on continued clinical progress and whether upcoming FDA feedback supports development plans. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BDTX remains a high-risk, low-confidence clinical-development story, with progress in trials balanced against cash use and uncertain execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Black Diamond is advancing its tumor-agnostic therapies with positive lung cancer data. |
| Improving |
| failure to advance FDA approval or negative Phase 3 results by end 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce losses and improve earnings trajectory | A supporting condition in Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.63 in 2026 to less negative or breakeven by 2028. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.0 per share by 2028 | Diluted EPS: $-0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.63 in 2026 to less negative or breakeven by 2028. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-0.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.16 → $-0.95 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.00 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.00 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.16 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.15 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.15 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.15 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.06 | $0 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.00 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.00 | $0 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.93 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.95 | $2,845,286 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.