Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Butterfly Network, Inc. (BFLY)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.07-10.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep adjusted EBITDA loss within $21M to $25M in 2026 | Management plans to cut adjusted EBITDA loss to $21M-$25M in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $25M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with elevated risk and current losses, rather than an established, consistently profitable company. The long-term thesis is weakened this week: revenue and adjusted EBITDA loss trends show progress, but the latest miss and a shift to a mixed signal reduce confidence.
The valuation evidence shows BFLY at a 4.9 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.
Near-term results are uncertain after the October earnings miss, and the evidence notes misses across recent quarters. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and a narrower adjusted EBITDA loss support progress, with management raising 2026 revenue guidance and reporting enterprise deals and a first Embedded partner product launch.
The thesis depends on continued growth across the three growth engines, further Embedded partnerships and applications, and continued improvement in adjusted EBITDA while investing for growth. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility; weakening employment could also weigh on the healthcare sector, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers would be supportive.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BFLY’s growth initiatives provide a basis for the long-term thesis, but the latest miss and weaker momentum make execution the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit improved from $13.4M to $18.3M in the last year. |
| Improving |
| Gross profit falls below $13M in Q1 2026 |
Gross profit: $23.802M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $18M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202623,802,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 20% to 24% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Butterfly Network, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 24% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 17% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 51.7% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 24% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202651.696217 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.09 → $-0.06 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.09 | $142,180,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.09 | $142,380,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.07 | $143,359,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $143,359,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.07 | $143,359,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $143,359,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $143,359,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $146,219,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $144,559,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $147,419,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $148,182,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $149,370,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $149,299,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.07 | $149,299,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.07 | $149,299,457 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.07 | $149,299,457 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.07 | $149,299,457 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.07 | $149,299,457 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.07 | $149,299,457 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.07 | $149,349,525 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.07 | $149,349,525 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.07 | $149,349,525 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.07 | $149,349,525 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.07 | $149,349,525 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.07 | $149,344,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.06 | $148,574,137 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.06 | $149,318,762 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.06 | $149,318,762 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.06 | $149,318,762 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.06 | $149,318,762 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.06 | $149,343,762 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.06 | $149,343,762 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.