Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Biglari Holdings, Inc. (BH-A)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1608.20-9.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BH-A yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
manage $225 million loan cost | The company secured a $225 million loan at 8.8% interest to support growth. | Intact | interest coverage ratio falls below 1.5x | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an operating-improvement story with some growth-sensitive exposure, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The long-term thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains weak and the thesis is still being watched.
The evidence snapshot does not provide valuation or expectations data, so whether BH-A is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Recent price reaction is noted as up, but that does not show what the market already assumes about future business performance.
Near term, earnings remain uncertain: the snapshot flags elevated risk of another miss, citing erratic surprises and consecutive misses. On the multi-year view, operating progress is mixed but improving, with pre-tax operating earnings moving from a loss in 2026-Q1 to a gain in 2026-Q2, while Steak n Shake same-store sales rose 13.8% in the quarter.
The thesis depends on whether management can keep improving operating performance and sustaining Steak n Shake sales growth. Sector signals matter near term: continued strong results from MCD, SBUX, and YUM could support consumer discretionary momentum, while weaker results or GDP growth below 2% could add pressure.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BH-A has signs of operating improvement, but weak recent performance and elevated earnings risk leave the long-term thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Biglari Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is stabilize same-store sales and improve customer traffic within next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| same-store sales decline persists beyond next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
return to profitability | A primary condition in Biglari Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is achieve positive net income within next 4 quarters. | Improving | net income remains negative beyond next 4 quarters | Net income: $39.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: achieve positive net income within next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202639,926,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-9.56 → $-9.56 · observed estimates
$0.82B → $0.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-9.56 | $823,597,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.