Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (BHR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.54-4.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
No analysts cover EPS estimates for this fiscal period.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share remains at $0.05 per quarter | It keeps paying a stable $0.05 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.05 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.05 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2025-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 7, 20250.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical hotel recovery and asset-repositioning story, not a steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, while management’s focus on hotel operations, debt maturities, and asset sales continues.
The valuation evidence says BHR is cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that suggests limited optimism is priced in. However, the model confidence is medium, and the evidence also flags an expensive valuation as the main source of fragility, so the valuation picture is mixed.
Near-term results may remain uneven: comparable Hotel EBITDA rose year over year in Q2, but revenue and EBITDA were lower than in Q1. Management continues to emphasize debt discipline and hotel performance; debt maturity conditions are described as manageable, while the overall risk label recently moved to high.
Over the next few quarters, repeated earnings beats could support higher estimates, while weaker results from hotel-sector peers could remove a helpful sector backdrop. A shift toward Fed rate cuts may also help rate-sensitive real estate businesses, but BHR’s own progress in hotel operations, debt management, and portfolio changes remains central to the multi-year thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BHR’s long-term thesis depends on turning asset sales and operating priorities into steadier hotel performance without weakening balance-sheet discipline. The setup remains uncertain, with high risk and mixed valuation evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Braemar is improving its operating income from a loss to $39.6M. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $0 next quarter |
Operating income: $30.611M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $39.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202630,611,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -6% next year | A primary condition in Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -6% YoY. | Broken | Revenue decline exceeds -6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Unavailable | $638,739,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | $638,739,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | $638,739,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | $638,739,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | $638,739,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Unavailable | $389,512,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | Unavailable | $400,569,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | Unavailable | $403,592,000 | 0 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.