Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.86-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BHRB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BHRB — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-22
Other Events On October 22, 2026, the Company announced its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock of $0.55 per share, payable on December 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 13, 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 included a full quarter of LINKBANCORP results. Lower adjusted costs would show the combined bank is gaining control of expenses.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted non-interest expense is less than $65.3 million, the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted non-interest expense is $65.3 million or more. Merger costs are still rising.
Why it matters: Q3 nonperforming loans rose to $108.0 million, or 1.34% of loans. A rise past last year’s 1.60% level would weaken the credit picture.
Worry ifNonperforming loans rise above 1.60% of total loans in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans stay at or below 1.34% of total loans, with no broad rise in delinquencies.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 4.21% in Q3, while deposit costs also rose. A sustained margin above Q2’s 4.15% would show that income is keeping pace with funding costs.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 4.15%, and deposit costs do not rise faster than loan yields.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls to 4.15% or lower as deposit costs keep rising.
Why it matters: The bank added $62.2 million in loans during Q3 and made $406.9 million in new loan commitments. Continued growth would support its merger and growth plans.
Supportive ifEnding gross loans rise by at least $62.2 million from the Q3 level of $8.1 billion.
Worry ifEnding gross loans fall from $8.1 billion, or new loan commitments drop below $333 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $232 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,313 loss on $10,000 · 13.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 saw higher delinquencies and nonperforming loans, though management said the increases came from a few credits. Higher loan loss costs would test that view.
Worry ifQ4 loan credit provision tops $1.5 million. Delinquencies or nonperforming loans also rise.
Less concerning ifQ4 loan credit provision is at or below $1.5 million and nonperforming loans do not rise above $108.0 million.