Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.35-0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BHRB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BHRB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS shows problems after the merger. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $0.50.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS reported above $0.50.
Why it matters: Loan growth is important for making money. A big increase shows good market growth.
Supportive ifTotal gross loans increase by more than $1 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal gross loans decrease or grow less than $500 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More deposits mean the company is keeping customers. It is also growing after the merger.
Supportive ifTotal deposits are over $9.5 billion.
Worry ifTotal deposits are below $9.0 billion.
Why it matters: The company pays dividends to give money back to shareholders. Regular payments show it is strong financially.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled to shareholders of record.
Worry ifThe company suspends or delays the dividend payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,313 loss on $10,000 · 13.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below this target would signal challenges in achieving full-year earnings goals.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS was below $1.87.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS reported at or above $1.87.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects profitability. A drop could signal issues in loan pricing.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.0% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays at or above 4.15% in Q3.
Why it matters: The company is keeping the dividend. This shows they are confident in their finances after the merger.
Supportive ifThe board declares a $0.55 dividend for Q3.
Worry ifThe board reduces the dividend below $0.55 for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Burke & Herbert's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Successfully merging LINKBANCORP can boost growth and strengthen market position. This affects future results.
Supportive ifGood news about teamwork or keeping customers after the merger.
Worry ifReports of problems with merging or losing customers after the merger.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median of 15% for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15%.