Reading BILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BILL free→Reading BILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BILL free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, it is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 BILL trades at 13× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $35–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -92.96x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.70 → $0.70 (+1.1% / 30d). 20 raised, 0 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$506.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,294.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 22.3 points (from 58.1 to 35.8).
As of June 12, 2026, company momentum fell. This indicates a decline in recent performance. The risk remains elevated, suggesting ongoing concerns about volatility. The sector backdrop is noted as a tailwind, which may provide some support despite the other changes.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If guidance falls below $425 million, it may signal slowing growth trends.
Confirms:Q4 total revenue guidance is set between $425 million and $435 million, with a drop below $425 million.
Disproves:Q4 total revenue guidance meets or exceeds $435 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BILL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Technology Officer, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Payments and Financial Services — Ken Moss, Mary Kay Bowman: Two senior executives are departing the company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $55.00 (median $50.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BILL Bill Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
The company plans to reduce its workforce by up to 30% to improve agility and efficiency.
The company aims to drive revenue growth while significantly improving profit margins.
Transition the current COO to the role of Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer to focus on strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: The workforce cut aims to improve efficiency. Profitability changes will show if it works.
Confirms:Net income increases to over $12.79M in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Net income is still negative. It has not improved much from -$11.59M.
Why it matters: The buyback could boost shareholder value. Actual buyback activity will show commitment.
Confirms:The company reports buying back shares totaling at least $100M by Q3 2026.
Disproves:No stock buybacks happened by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth reflects the impact of new leadership and strategy. It shows future potential.
Confirms one read:Revenue increases to over $406.56M in Q3 2026.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth falls below $358.22M or stagnates.
Why it matters: Finishing the job cuts could help the company run better and make more money.
Confirms:Completion of the workforce reduction by the end of Q4 as planned.
Disproves:Workforce reduction not completed by the end of Q4.
Why it matters: News about the $1 billion share buyback may show management's trust in the stock.
Confirms:They may announce share buybacks over $100 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:No share buybacks are expected in the next quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, BILL Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company makes reference to certain non-GAAP financial information in both the press release and the conference call. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results i…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 7, 2026, the Company additionally announced that it will reduce its workforce by up to 30% (the “Restructuring”). The Restructuring is part of the Company’s ongoing efforts to improve organizational agility and efficiency, while also seeking to drive greater profitability. The Company currently estimates that it will incur charges of approximately $30 million to $60 million in connection with the Restructuring, consisting primarily of…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Finally, on May 7, 2026, the Company announced that its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $1.0 billion in shares of its outstanding common stock (the “2026 Share Repurchase Authorization”). This authorization includes unused amounts under the Company’s existing share repurchase program announced in August 2025. Pursuant to this authorization, the Company may repurchase shares from time to time through open market purchases, in privately negotiated…