Allbirds Inc (BIRD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.52+2.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BIRD — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD disclosure. On August 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Smartbird, Inc. (the “Company”) declared $0.31 per share of common stock as the amount of the special dividend payable from the proceeds of the sale of the Company's footwear business (the “Sale”) to stockholders of record as of June 25, 2026. The anticipated payment date is August 20, 2026. Following the conclusion of transitional and post-closing matters related to the Sale, the Company may determine to pay an additional…
Why it matters: Allbirds issues convertible notes as part of its money plan. A successful issue shows faith in growth.
Supportive ifAllbirds issues the full $50 million in convertible notes.
Worry ifThe issuance fails or is significantly less than $50 million.
Why it matters: A clear plan from the new CEO can help the company. It can also boost investor confidence.
Watch forThe CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a public statement or earnings call.
Also watch forThe CEO does not give a clear plan. This causes uncertainty.
Why it matters: A better gross margin is important for the company to improve its financial health.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 27.8% in Q2 2026, showing improvement.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 23.3%, which shows more problems ahead.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is key for Allbirds. It helps regain investor confidence and supports growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue did not decline from Q1. This shows stabilization.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines further from $22.3M in Q1, showing worsening trends.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$363 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $926 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,764 loss on $10,000 · 87.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Smartbird's capital spending will show if it can keep growing in AI.
Supportive ifManagement talks about smart spending choices that meet customer needs.
Worry ifReports of poor capital use that do not help growth.
Why it matters: Improving gross margin is crucial for the company's financial health and future growth.
Supportive ifGross margin was over 27.8%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin was under 27.8%. This shows ongoing problems with cost control.
Why it matters: Successful customer talks will support the new business path and growth chances.
Watch forThe company says it has a big new customer for its AI services.
Also watch forNo new customer news or delays in talks.
Why it matters: Stable revenue is important for Smartbird's transition. If revenue improves, it shows the new strategy works.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases or stays above $22.3 million compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue drops below $22.3 million. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: If the acquisition works, it can improve Allbirds' market position. This can lead to growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition leads to increased sales or market share in the footwear segment.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not bring the expected benefits. This leads to flat or falling sales.
Why it matters: Successful setups will show if Smartbird can meet enterprise needs in AI.
Supportive ifThe company will announce its first AI setups for business customers.
Worry ifNo news on setups or delays in planned cluster launches.
Why it matters: Approval is needed for the financing plan. This is key for the company's shift to AI.
Supportive ifStockholders approve the financing plan at the meeting.
Worry ifStockholders reject the financing plan.
Why it matters: Watching customer demand will show if Smartbird's shift to AI is working.
Supportive ifManagement reports on capacity metrics. These show that customer demand is going up.
Worry ifCustomer demand metrics show no growth or a drop in capacity.
Why it matters: A successful issuance can help with cash flow. It can also support growth plans.
Supportive ifConvertible notes issuance is successful. It raises the full $50 million.
Worry ifIssuance fails or raises significantly less than $50 million.
Why it matters: Issuing convertible notes can change capital structure and how investors feel. It shows Allbirds' debt management.
Watch forConvertible notes can cause stock prices to rise after they are issued.
Also watch forConvertible notes can cause stock prices to fall after they are issued.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company’s path. Good consumer feelings may show a smooth change and more interest in the brand.
Watch forSurveys show consumer feelings improve after the CEO change.
Also watch forConsumer feelings stay negative or get worse after the change.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company's financial health. It also shows a commitment to value.
Supportive ifSpecial dividend payment made to stockholders as planned.
Worry ifNo dividend payment could mean financial problems.