Allbirds Inc (BIRD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.30-20.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BIRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
BIRD — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD disclosure. On August 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Smartbird, Inc. (the “Company”) declared $0.31 per share of common stock as the amount of the special dividend payable from the proceeds of the sale of the Company's footwear business (the “Sale”) to stockholders of record as of June 25, 2026. The anticipated payment date is August 20, 2026. Following the conclusion of transitional and post-closing matters related to the Sale, the Company may determine to pay an additional…
Why it matters: Smartbird has over $200 million in capital access, but it says capital alone does not create customers. Spending without signed demand could strain funds.
Worry ifThe company reports major spending on hardware or clusters. But customer contracts or capacity in use do not rise to match.
Less concerning ifThe company links new hardware spending to signed customer needs and reports those systems in use.
Why it matters: Smartbird is in the early stage of its AI business. A live customer deployment would show progress beyond plans.
Supportive ifOn November 5, the company reports a customer launch. It names the contracted capacity and start date.
Worry ifThe report names no customer launches or start dates. It gives no number of launches or contracted capacity.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$282 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $989 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,064 loss on $10,000 · 90.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.