BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.89+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJRI
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $53 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $60–$74. Note: our $53 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($60–$74). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $69 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $62.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $42.86 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $73.46 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $8.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$60.00 – $74.00 (median $65.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-31
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.60/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $30.05 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $63.03 | 11.1 | 5.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $46.69 | 22.9 | 2.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $56.16 | 21.5 | 2.62 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $60.17 | 0.9 | 65.45 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $115.98 | 52.5 | 2.21 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $20.91 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $61.43 | 27.8 | 2.21 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $39.44 | 16.9 | 2.34 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $63.30 | 21.5 | 2.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $68.75 | 0.9 | 74.78 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $154.84 | 52.5 | 2.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $82.01 | 27.8 | 2.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $69.05 | 21.5 | 3.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $74.99 | 0.9 | 81.57 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $168.90 | 52.5 | 3.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $89.45 | 27.8 | 3.22 | Analyst | medium |