Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.45-5.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.72 → 2.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BJRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure between $85M and $95M | A supporting condition in BJ's Restaurants, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $85M to $95M. | Intact | capital expenditure exceeds $95M or falls below $85M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $24.69M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $85M to $95M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 202624,690,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BJRI is a restaurant business with a durable-premium profile, meaning its valuation reflects stronger or steadier business qualities than peers. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent performance, but management execution is neutral and comparable restaurant sales growth remains a watch item.
The evidence rates BJRI as expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a modest expectations gap. Its priced-in fragility is low, and the valuation score recently fell, though that does not by itself show that expectations are now low.
Near term, restaurant-level operating profit and margin have improved, consistent with management’s stated priority. Capital spending guidance has stayed within its stated range, but its status is mixed, and comparable sales growth still needs watching. Near-term miss risk is described as low, with some added caution because BJRI is smaller and industry peers have recently missed.
A key downside scenario is management cutting guidance after recently raising it, which could weaken confidence in its execution. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from MCD, SBUX, and YUM could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued profit and margin progress, better evidence on comparable sales, and guidance that remains credible. The business setup is intact, but its expensive valuation leaves less room for execution to disappoint. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3% |
| A primary condition in BJ's Restaurants, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1% and <=3% YoY. |
| Intact |
| comparable restaurant sales growth falls below 1% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our consistent performance growing sales and profits gives us confidence to raise our full year guidance.”” “Our consistent performance growing sales and profits gives us confidence to raise our full year guidance.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Restaurant level operating profit between $221M and $233M | Restaurant profit aims for $221M to $233M in 2026. | Intact | restaurant level operating profit falls below $221M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.65 → $2.71 · observed estimates
$1.50B → $1.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.65 | $1,495,433,877 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.65 | $1,495,433,877 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.65 | $1,495,977,677 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.65 | $1,495,977,677 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.65 | $1,495,977,677 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.66 | $1,497,370,477 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.66 | $1,497,370,477 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.68 | $1,501,643,277 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.68 | $1,501,643,277 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.73 | $1,514,810,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.73 | $1,517,134,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.74 | $1,517,382,739 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.72 | $1,515,847,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.72 | $1,516,151,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.72 | $1,516,801,710 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.71 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.71 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.71 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.70 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.70 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.70 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.70 | $1,517,365,732 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.71 | $1,518,132,399 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.