BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.89+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
BJRI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc., a California corporation (the “Registrant” or the “Company”), announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release issued by the Registrant in connection with the announcement is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts restaurant traffic and sales. It affects BJ's growth outlook.
Watch forConsumer spending growth is over 3% in upcoming reports.
Also watch forConsumer spending growth is under 1% in upcoming reports.
Why it matters: Falling below this amount may mean rising costs or lower sales.
Worry ifRestaurant profit was below $55 million.
Less concerning ifRestaurant profit was above $55 million.
Why it matters: More spending could mean fast growth or higher costs. This may affect profits.
Worry ifSpending was over $95 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending was $85 million or less for 2026.
Why it matters: This will indicate if the profit growth trend is reversing, impacting future guidance.
Worry ifRestaurant profit was $228 million or more for Q3.
Less concerning ifRestaurant profit was less than $228 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management. It helps support growth plans.
Watch forCapital spending was at or above $85 million and below $95 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending was below $85 million or above $95 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This will help assess if the profit growth is sustainable or if costs are rising too fast.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth reported at 5.5% or higher for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth was below 5.5% for Q3.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management's confidence and help stock value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases of $12 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or less buyback activity in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Low guest traffic may show less customer interest and hurt sales.
Worry ifGuest traffic growth reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifGuest traffic growth reported above 4%.
Why it matters: Results will show sales trends and profits, affecting how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings report shows comparable restaurant sales growth at or above 2.4% for Q2.
Also watch forEarnings report shows restaurant sales growth under 2.4% for Q2.
Why it matters: Falling below this target may show problems. It could hurt profits.
Worry ifRestaurant profit was under $221 million in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifRestaurant profit was over $233 million in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show sales trends. They will reflect operational performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows worse results than expected. This means operational problems.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. A drop below $145 million is worrisome.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $145 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is more than $150 million.
Why it matters: A lower margin means higher costs or problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifProfit margin at restaurants was below 17%.
Less concerning ifProfit margin at restaurants was 17.2% or higher.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in sales momentum after a strong Q2 performance.
Worry ifComparable restaurant sales growth was below 3.0% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable restaurant sales growth meets or exceeds 3.0% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop would show weaker profits after a strong Q2 margin gain.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, the restaurant profit margin was under 17.0%.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, the restaurant profit margin is 17.0% or more.
Why it matters: This shows good capital use and trust in future cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $50 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases remain below $50 million by the end of 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $407 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,655 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.