BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.45-5.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BJRI — officer change
Dated 2026-09-09
Director — Christopher W. Brandt, James D. White: The filing discloses the appointment of two new directors to the Board of Directors, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: BJ's raised its 2026 sales outlook after Q2 sales rose 6.5%. Q3 results will test whether that pace lasts.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 comparable sales growth is above 4%, with guest traffic still growing.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales growth is 3% or less, or guest traffic turns negative.
Why it matters: BJ's bought back about $7.7 million of stock in the first half. The next report will show whether it keeps to its annual plan.
Watch forBJ's reports more share purchases in 2026. Total purchases stay at or below $50 million.
Also watch forBJ's pauses purchases despite its plan, or reports more than $50 million in total 2026 purchases.
Why it matters: Q2 food costs rose to 25.5% of sales, while labor costs were 34.5%. Further increases could squeeze restaurant profits.
Worry ifQ3 food costs exceed 25.5% of sales, or labor and benefits exceed 35.4% of sales.
Less concerning ifQ3 food costs are 25.5% of sales or less, and labor and benefits are 34.5% or less.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,655 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.