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BKE
The Buckle, Inc.NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$45.29+0.42%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL, as their earnings guidance could influence BKE's momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Market cap
- $2.32B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-06-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$55.91consensus
Range $35.73 – $68.19
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$10.60consensus
Range $10.60 – $10.60
vs price: +327% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $45 BKE trades at 10× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $47–$53. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.4x
peer 15.5x · own history 10.1x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-19%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$55.91
range $35.62 – $68.19
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
87th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
28th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -8.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.90 → $0.83 (-8.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,386.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum fell by 23.9 points (from 24.0 to 0.1).
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
As of June 12, 2026, company momentum fell. The signal changed to mixed from mild favorable.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth dropping below 5%
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a shift in consumer spending trends. This could impact Buckle's performance and investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 5% year over year.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting BKE and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BKE and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If BKE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +25% on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping BKE and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BKE and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 29, 2026, The Buckle, Inc. announced financial results for the fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), as amended, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, excep…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.