TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$354.530.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLD — legal / regulatory event
Dated 2026-07-01
by reference. On July 1, 2026, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, TopBuild notified the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) that the Mergers had been completed and NYSE filed with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration under Section 12(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) on Form 25 in order to initiate the delisting of TopBuild Shares from NYSE and the deregistration of TopBuild Shares under Section 12(b) of the E…
Why it matters: This acquisition may help TopBuild reach more customers and increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe Comfort Pro acquisition is complete. It adds $6 million in yearly revenue.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close, impacting growth plans.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the merger is working. It also reflects market conditions.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows strong market performance.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth is below 0%. This may mean there are market or operational problems.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are a major growth driver. Increased revenue from these deals can improve overall performance.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 17% in the next quarter, driven by recent acquisitions.
Worry ifRevenue growth is under 10%. This shows poor results from acquisitions.
Why it matters: The election results will show how TopBuild stockholders view the merger terms.
Watch forAt least 80% of stockholders choose to get cash.
Also watch forLess than 50% of stockholders choose cash consideration.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,912 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Working with QXO is key. It brings benefits and makes things run better.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached or passed synergy goals from the merger in six months.
Worry ifThere are reports of integration problems. This delays achieving synergies.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is important for TopBuild's growth. It helps with cross-selling and operations.
Supportive ifThe merger closes successfully on July 1, 2026, with all conditions met.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or faces significant delays beyond July 1, 2026.