TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$354.530.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLD — legal / regulatory event
Dated 2026-07-01
by reference. On July 1, 2026, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, TopBuild notified the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) that the Mergers had been completed and NYSE filed with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration under Section 12(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) on Form 25 in order to initiate the delisting of TopBuild Shares from NYSE and the deregistration of TopBuild Shares under Section 12(b) of the E…
Why it matters: TopBuild signed a deal for Comfort Pro, which has about $6 million in annual sales. A close would add to its installation business.
Supportive ifA company filing or release confirms the Comfort Pro deal closed.
Worry ifA filing says the deal was canceled. Or, it remains unclosed after the stated second-quarter window.
Why it matters: Shareholders approved the deal, and the companies set a target close near July 1, 2026. A filing can confirm whether the deal closed.
Watch forA company filing confirms the deal closed on or near July 1, 2026, with no change to the merger terms.
Also watch forA filing says closing terms are still unmet, the close is delayed, or the merger agreement ends.
Why it matters: TopBuild named cross-selling and better buying terms as deal benefits. QXO updates can show whether those gains are taking shape.
Watch forQXO reports sales from cross-selling or cost savings tied to TopBuild. It states an amount or progress toward a target.
Also watch forQXO reports no measurable gains, cuts its synergy targets, or says the gains are taking longer than planned.
Why it matters: Weakness in residential and light commercial markets hurt results. Installation sales fell 9.8% due to lower volume and 2.9% due to lower prices.
Supportive ifInstallation Services volume and price each reach at least flat year over year in a reported quarter.
Worry ifInstallation Services volume remains below -9.8% year over year, or price falls more than 2.9%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,912 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.