TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$354.530.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $355 BLD trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $394 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $360–$485. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $438.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $635.56 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $679.75 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $190.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$360.00 – $485.00 (median $438.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $295.80 |
| 11.5 |
| 34.04 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $384.11 | 15.3 | 25.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $322.15 | 17.0 | 18.91 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $177.85 | 0.9 | 199.84 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $178.73 | 9.5 | 18.91 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $130.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $414.48 | 21.9 | 18.91 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $341.06 | 17.0 | 20.02 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $538.40 | 15.3 | 35.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $442.21 | 17.0 | 25.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $270.49 | 0.9 | 303.94 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $245.35 | 9.5 | 25.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $568.96 | 21.9 | 25.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $674.32 | 15.3 | 43.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $584.83 | 17.0 | 34.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $357.72 | 0.9 | 401.96 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $324.47 | 9.5 | 34.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $752.45 | 21.9 | 34.33 | Analyst | medium |