TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$354.530.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain operating income near recent levels: Q1 2026 operating income $175.0M vs $175M target.
TopBuild completed a merger with QXO, unlocking growth and cost synergies. Revenue grew 17.2% year over year to $1.446 billion in Q1 2026. The company redeemed $400 million in senior notes, improving its capital structure. Free cash flow is expected between $4.2 billion and $5 billion by 2030.
The recent merger caused leadership turnover and integration risks. Operating income declined slightly despite revenue growth. The stock is under pressure with a 27.6% drawdown from its high. Market headwinds in the consumer sector may hurt demand.
The market prices in about 6% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 11% below our fair value near $396. Our fair value is about 10% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism. We see risks in integration and margin pressure not fully discounted.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $4.0 billion in 2030
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $170 million in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
BLD represents a multi-year view on a Consumer Discretionary company with a focus on growth through mergers and acquisitions. The current thesis state is mixed, with some positive momentum but also volatility in management execution and sector headwinds.
The market appears to have a low fragility tier priced in, suggesting that it does not expect significant negative surprises. However, BLD is trading at a slight premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may have moderate expectations for its performance.
Management's recent focus on executing the merger with QXO and driving operational excellence may lead to mixed results in the near term. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with revenue growth offsetting some challenges, but margin pressure remains a concern.
The future performance of BLD hinges on its ability to successfully integrate the QXO merger and navigate sector challenges. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders like AMZN and TSLA will play a crucial role in shaping the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the company's financial performance. The successful execution of the merger with QXO reinforces the integration's success. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on operational improvements, delivering compounding shareholder returns, and maintaining profitability despite market challenges.
Stated in 2 quarters including 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 earnings calls. Revenue grew 17.2% from $1.233B in 2025-Q1 to $1.446B in 2026-Q1, driven by acquisitions offsetting residential market weakness. Operating income declined slightly from $179.6M to $175M. Management's focus on operational excellence and shareholder returns is persistent with mixed delivery given margin pressure.
“CEO: 'We continue our focus on delivering compounding shareholder returns, driving operational excellence, and executing our long-term strategy.'”
“CEO: 'Our teams demonstrated resilience, strength and an unwavering commitment to drive operational excellence and increase shareholder value.'”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.35 billion in FY26
Focus on operational improvements, delivering compounding shareholder returns, and maintaining profitability despite market challenges.
Stated in 2 quarters including 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 earnings calls. Revenue grew 17.2% from $1.233B in 2025-Q1 to $1.446B in 2026-Q1, driven by acquisitions offsetting residential market weakness. Operating income declined slightly from $179.6M to $175M. Management's focus on operational excellence and shareholder returns is persistent with mixed delivery given margin pressure.
“CEO: 'We continue our focus on delivering compounding shareholder returns, driving operational excellence, and executing our long-term strategy.'”
“CEO: 'Our teams demonstrated resilience, strength and an unwavering commitment to drive operational excellence and increase shareholder value.'”
Continue to pursue acquisitions to grow revenue, diversify end-market exposure, and enhance long-term growth prospects.
Stated in 2 quarters including 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 earnings calls. Management completed seven acquisitions in 2025 adding about $1.2B in annual revenue and four acquisitions in early 2026 adding $83.8M. M&A remains a top priority for growth and diversification, with delivery evident in acquisition-driven revenue increases.
Complete the merger with QXO, integrate operations, and leverage combined capabilities for growth and synergies.
Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q1 earnings call and 2026-06-29 8-K exhibit. The merger with QXO was approved by stockholders and expected to close on or about July 1, 2026. Management emphasized integration benefits such as cross-selling and procurement synergies. The priority is delivering as the transaction closed promptly after approval.
“CEO: 'We are excited about our future in joining QXO... confident in opportunities to accelerate cross-selling initiatives.'”
Breaks if: Merger integration delays or failures reported beyond 2027
Complete the merger with QXO, integrate operations, and leverage combined capabilities for growth and synergies.
Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q1 earnings call and 2026-06-29 8-K exhibit. The merger with QXO was approved by stockholders and expected to close on or about July 1, 2026. Management emphasized integration benefits such as cross-selling and procurement synergies. The priority is delivering as the transaction closed promptly after approval.
“CEO: 'We are excited about our future in joining QXO... confident in opportunities to accelerate cross-selling initiatives.'”
Manage executive and director departures and leadership changes resulting from the merger with QXO.
Newly stated in 2026-07-01 8-K filing. The merger with QXO resulted in all TopBuild executive officers and directors ceasing their positions. This reflects a completed leadership transition as part of the merger integration.
Overall, BLD's position is stable but requires careful monitoring of management execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.
“CEO: 'M&A continues to be a priority... completed four acquisitions adding more than $80 million in annual revenue.'”
“CEO: 'We completed seven acquisitions adding about $1.2 billion in annual revenue... M&A will continue to be the highest priority for deploying our strong free cash flow.'”