Blackbaud (BLKB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.10-2.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLKB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLKB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Director — Anthony W. Boor: An existing executive was appointed to the Board of Directors while retaining his current officer role, which is a standard governance action rather than a departure or significant leadership change.
Why it matters: New AI solutions could enhance Blackbaud's market position and drive revenue growth. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new Agent for Good AI solution within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new AI solutions launched within the next quarter.
Why it matters: A steady margin shows good cost control. It also means the company runs efficiently.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is over 18.3% in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income margin drops below 18.3% in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps keep investing and paying back shareholders.
Supportive ifQ2 non-GAAP free cash flow exceeds $37 million.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP free cash flow falls below $37 million.
Why it matters: Strong adoption of AI solutions could boost revenue and improve market position.
Supportive ifNew contracts or partnerships for AI solutions are announced.
Worry ifLack of new contracts or partnerships for AI solutions in the next quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $512 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,218 loss on $10,000 · 62.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Big share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifShare buybacks reach 10% of total shares by year-end.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than 5% of outstanding shares.
Why it matters: High demand for AI solutions at the conference shows the market is ready to grow.
Supportive ifGood feedback or high interest was seen at the bbcon event in September.
Worry ifLow interest or bad feedback was reported during the bbcon event.
Why it matters: Hitting the top of EPS guidance shows strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reaches $5.25 or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS falls below $5.15.
Why it matters: New AI products show that the company is still innovating. This can help attract more customers and increase revenue.
Supportive ifThey announced at least two new AI product updates.
Worry ifNo new AI product announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New AI products can boost customer interest and help Blackbaud earn more money.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new AI-powered product launch in Q3.
Worry ifNo new AI product launches announced in Q3.
Why it matters: New AI products could enhance Blackbaud's market position and drive revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new AI-powered solutions during the bbcon conference on Sept. 29-Oct. 1.
Worry ifNo new AI product announcements at the bbcon conference.
Why it matters: New AI tools can increase customer engagement. They may also help grow revenue in social impact.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new AI solution launched by Blackbaud by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new AI solutions announced by Blackbaud by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If the company hits or goes over $1.33, it shows strong profits. This matches what management expects.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reaches or exceeds $1.33 in Q3.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS falls below $1.33 in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal challenges in maintaining momentum. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue growth falls below 4.2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 total revenue growth stays at or above 4.2% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows revenue growth may slow down. This raises worries about future performance.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth year over year is less than 3.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth year over year is 3.0% or higher.
Why it matters: Updates may show that management feels good about financial health. They want to return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase the share buyback program. This will go beyond the current $850 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean costs are rising. This could hurt profitability.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 38.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is 38.0% or higher.