Blackbaud (BLKB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.80-0.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLKB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLKB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Director — Anthony W. Boor: An existing executive was appointed to the Board of Directors while retaining his current officer role, which is a standard governance action rather than a departure or significant leadership change.
Why it matters: Lantern is a new fundraising AI tool. Its launch and customer use can show whether AI work reaches Blackbaud products.
Supportive ifBlackbaud launches Lantern in Raiser’s Edge NXT during 2027. It names a feature or reports a customer-use measure.
Worry ifLantern is not embedded in Raiser’s Edge NXT during 2027, or Blackbaud reports a delay or withdrawal.
Why it matters: Blackbaud has bought back over 7% of its shares since year-end 2025 and lowered leverage. The year-end figure will test its capital plan.
Supportive ifBlackbaud reports 2026 repurchases of at least 7% of shares outstanding on December 31, 2025. Q4 leverage stays at or below 2.3x.
Worry if2026 repurchases are below 7% of those shares, or Q4 leverage rises above 2.3x.
Why it matters: Revenue growth was 4.2% in Q1, 3.0% in Q2, and 4.1% in Q3. A further drop could signal weaker growth.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue rises more than 3% year over year, keeping growth above the Q2 rate.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue rises 3% or less year over year, or falls year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $512 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,872 loss on $10,000 · 58.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.